← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sapphire Selling Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Paroda Diva
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Paroda Diva (SR 66, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in this weak Class 6 field and is dropping a class, which historically improves win probability. The market has steamed 24% — the sharpest inward move in the race — and Jason Hart (14% strike rate, 2630 career runners) is a high-calibre booking for this level. The GoingFit:~ indicates moderate comfort on good ground, which is acceptable, and the recent form of '461268' shows a solid latest run (8th last time, but placed twice in the sequence). At 9-11 she carries a manageable weight and the MarkMv:+4 is a modest rise that shouldn't be prohibitive at this class level. Each-way alternative: Macedonian. Main danger: Macedonian — Macedonian (SR 60, 9/2) has steamed 21% in the market, carries only 9-5 (6lb less than Paroda Diva), and a MarkMv:-14 means he's racing off a much-reduced mark — Connor Beasley's 14% strike rate adds further confidence that connections are genuinely sweet on this one.
Full result
Winner: Lamlash Bay (GB) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lamlash Bay Fox #4 9/2
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2
Fan Mail 9/4
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3
Dabbling 18/1
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4
Why Because 12/1
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5
Record Day Fox #3 8/1
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6
Wodao 18/1
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7
Paroda Diva Fox #1 9/2
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8
Macedonian Fox #2 11/2
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9
Mare Of London 16/1
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10
Ganthorpe 33/1
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11
Agric Ranger 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Paroda Diva 9/2 7TH
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2
Macedonian 9/2 8TH
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3
Record Day 13/2 5TH
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4
Lamlash Bay 11/2 SP 5/1 🏆 WON