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Mr Fox’s call
Donna Nook
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Donna Nook (SR:80, 7/2) shares the field's joint-highest SR with Fractional but carries only 3lb more than the favourite while boasting a 35% market move inward — the most aggressive steam in the race and a clear signal that money is on her. Daniel Tudhope (18% strike rate, 1867 career rides) is an elite northern pilot landing a big-yard booking from David O'Meara (13%, 2825 runners), and the visor+tongue-tie headgear combination on a mare who returned a '9' last time can be forgiven as a likely equipment trial. Her DistFit:~ and GoingFit:~ on today's good ground at 7f218y are workmanlike rather than damaging, and the -1 mark move gives her a sliver of handicap relief. The combination of top SR, the strongest market move in the field, and a high-calibre jockey booking makes her the standout pick. Each-way alternative: Vega's Virtue. Main danger: Fractional — Fractional (SR:80, 5/2) matches Donna Nook on ability, carries 4lb less, and William Haggas (23% strike rate) dropping this 3yo filly a class is a powerful form signal — the DistFit:+ at this trip is the key corroborating evidence that she handles the distance well.
Full result
Winner: Fractional (GB) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Fractional Fox #2 10/3
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2
Always Blue 6/1
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3
Donna Nook Fox #1 3/1
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4
Vega's Virtue Fox #3 15/2
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5
Reader 14/1
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6
Alessia Fernanda 16/1
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7
Catton Lady Fox #4 15/2
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8
Kiss Me My Love 9/1
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9
Ravishing Beauty 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Donna Nook 7/2 🥉 3RD
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2
Fractional 5/2 SP 4/1 🏆 WON
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3
Vega's Virtue 7/1 🏁 4TH
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4
Catton Lady 10/1 7TH