Catton Lady won two starts back and was second three starts back, so there is plenty to like, but a fourth last time out suggests she heads here needing to bounce back; she has run over today's trip and going, and 138 lb from stall four is the weight to overcome.
Form last 62-5214
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR73RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Alessia Fernanda arrives here fresh enough on 11 days' rest, has run over today's trip and going, and her rating of 74 edges above her official mark — a second three starts back the highlight of recent form, though a winless run in her last six starts is the main risk.
Form last 6867267
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR74RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Donna Nook landed a win in her last six starts and was third two starts back, bringing genuine recent consistency into this contest; rated 81 and the top-ranked runner in the field, she has distance and going experience behind her and looks the one to beat from stall 5 off 138 lb.
Form last 6144439
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR81RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won three starts back and was third two starts back, but fifth last time out suggests she may be coming off the boil; has run over today's trip and going, carries 135 lb from stall 1, and our rating of 72 gives her a slim edge over her official mark.
Form last 6930135
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR72RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fractional has been a model of consistency, finishing third last time out and placing in four of her last five starts, and she has run over today's trip and going before — a trainer firing at 28% in the last 14 days adds strong support. The risk is she remains yet to win.
Form last 63-5233
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR77RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Reader has struggled to convert her placed efforts into anything more, and a rating of 61 ranked bottom of the field makes her hard to fancy here, though she has run over today's distance and going before and faces a short turnaround of just 13 days.
Form last 628-334
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR61RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistent without a win in recent starts, Always Blue brings solid place form to the table — third two starts back and a runner-up five starts back — and has experience of today's trip and conditions, with our rating of 74 suggesting she holds each-way claims; the concern is she has yet to convert.
Form last 625434
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR74RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked seventh of nine on our figures, Ravishing Beauty faces a stiff ask, having finished eighth last time out and winning only once in her last six starts, though she has experience of today's distance and going and an eighth-place effort 26 days ago keeps her fresh enough.
Form last 6713348
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR65RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked eighth of nine on our figures and her speed rating of 57 does little to inspire confidence, but Vega's Virtue does bring a lively recent profile — three wins in her last six starts, including a winner last time out — and has experience of today's distance and going.
Form last 6138131
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR64RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Donna Nook owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1David O'MearaDaniel Tudhope
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Fractional
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · William Haggas✓ Value Signal
Alessia Fernanda
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
16/1 · Declan Carroll◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Donna Nook (SR:80, 7/2) shares the field's joint-highest SR with Fractional but carries only 3lb more than the favourite while boasting a 35% market move inward — the most aggressive steam in the race and a clear signal that money is on her. Daniel Tudhope (18% strike rate, 1867 career rides) is an elite northern pilot landing a big-yard booking from David O'Meara (13%, 2825 runners), and the visor+tongue-tie headgear combination on a mare who returned a '9' last time can be forgiven as a likely equipment trial. Her DistFit:~ and GoingFit:~ on today's good ground at 7f218y are workmanlike rather than damaging, and the -1 mark move gives her a sliver of handicap relief. The combination of top SR, the strongest market move in the field, and a high-calibre jockey booking makes her the standout pick.
Each-way alternative: Vega's Virtue.
Main danger: Fractional — Fractional (SR:80, 5/2) matches Donna Nook on ability, carries 4lb less, and William Haggas (23% strike rate) dropping this 3yo filly a class is a powerful form signal — the DistFit:+ at this trip is the key corroborating evidence that she handles the distance well.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form figure of '9' last time is a red flag regardless of headgear excuse — a finishing position that poor in a field she was expected to compete in undermines the SR:80 rating's reliability.
Course record is W0P1 at Thirsk — she has placed once but never won here, and the 7f218y trip is an unusual distance that may not suit her profile.
Fractional carries 4lb less on the same SR:80 mark, is trained by the superior 23%-strike-rate Haggas yard, and is shorter in the market at 5/2 — the weight-for-quality argument clearly favours the r…
The visor+tongue-tie headgear combination is untested on this mare; if last time was the equipment trial as suggested, today is still only the second test and the response is unproven.
ShortlistDonna Nook, Fractional, Vega's Virtue, Catton Lady