← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (Div II) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Tredegar Square
MEDIUM Advised 4/6 Est. 48%
Mr Fox says
Tredegar Square (SR:156, 4/6) is the standout on ability — a 4-point SR advantage over the next-best Find Your Fire (SR:152) and a massive 15+ point gap over the rest of the field. The horse has already won on debut (Form:1), confirming its SR translates to actual racecourse performance, and it steps down a class (ClassMv:↓1) which eases the task further. James Fanshawe (18% strike rate, 810 runners) is a reliable handler of juveniles, and Oisin Murphy (22%, 2674 runners) is an elite booking that Fanshawe would not waste on anything other than his intended winner. At 4/6 the market is essentially unanimous, and the 36lb drift on Marhaba Ya Tayib and the 84% drift on Birkett Bank confirm money is flowing in only one direction in this race. Each-way alternative: Find Your Fire. Main danger: Find Your Fire — Find Your Fire (SR:152, 11/4, Mkt:in20%) has steamed in 20% since opening, drops a class, and Stuart Williams with Marco Ghiani is a solid pairing — the SR gap to Tredegar Square is only 4 points, and on a first-time AW outing anything could compress that margin.
Full result
Winner: Find Your Fire (IRE) at SP 4/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Find Your Fire Fox #2 evn
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2
Birkett Bank 8/1
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3
Chapel Down 18/1
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4
Marhaba Ya Tayib 9/2
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5
Sol Dorado 33/1
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6
Premium Seat 33/1
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7
Seadreamin 40/1
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8
Falah Glory 15/2
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9
Romeo Guest Fox #3 7/1
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10
Black Treasure 40/1
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Tredegar Square Fox #1 -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Tredegar Square 4/6
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2
Find Your Fire 11/4 SP 4/5F 🏆 WON
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3
Romeo Guest 16/1 9TH