Wolverhampton (AW) 17:30 RESULTED
Class 5 15 Sep 2026

Tuesday 15 September Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (Div II) (GBB Race)

Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (Div II) (GBB Race) · 6f20y

Official Result

Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (Div II) (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Find Your Fire (IRE) Marco Ghiani · Stuart Williams
    4/5F
  2. 16/1
  3. 100/1
AI ExplorerBETA Deep analytics
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Wolverhampton (AW)

16:28–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 6 days, 10 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Tredegar Square silks
Tredegar Square
Age 2 · 9-8
1
156
2
9-8
SP 9/17 8/13
Favourable weight of 9-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.

2
Chapel Down silks
Chapel Down
Age 2 · 9-4
123
2
9-4
18/1 14/1 11/1
SR 123 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 123 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Find Your Fire silks
Find Your Fire
Age 2 · 9-4
5
152
2
9-4
SP 3/1 Evs
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

4
Marhaba Ya Tayib silks
Marhaba Ya Tayib
Age 2 · 9-4
141
2
9-4
9/2 13/2 10/3
SR 141 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 141 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Premium Seat silks
Premium Seat
Age 2 · 9-4
85
124
2
9-4
33/1 50/1 28/1
SR 124 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 124 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Romeo Guest silks
Romeo Guest
Age 2 · 9-4
5
136
2
9-4
7/1 16/1 7/1
SR 136 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 136 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Falah Glory silks
Falah Glory
Age 2 · 9-1
4
137
2
9-1
15/2 8/1 15/2
SR 137 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 137 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Seadreamin silks
Seadreamin
Age 2 · 9-1
0
126
2
9-1
40/1 33/1 28/1
SR 126 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 126 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Sol Dorado silks
Sol Dorado
Age 2 · 9-1
9
124
2
9-1
33/1 50/1 33/1
SR 124 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 124 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Birkett Bank silks
Birkett Bank
Age 2 · 8-13
137
2
8-13
8/1 FCST 6/1
SR 137 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 137 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Black Treasure silks
Black Treasure
Age 2 · 8-13
77
127
2
8-13
40/1 66/1 20/1
SR 127 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 127 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Tredegar Square 4/6 4/6 open 1.57 8/13 open 1.57 4/6 open 1.57 4/6 open 1.62 8/13 open 1.53 4/6 Bet365
2 Chapel Down 18/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 34.00 11/1 open 29.00 11/1 open 29.00 16/1 open 29.00 16/1 open 29.00 18/1 Bet365
3 Find Your Fire evn open 6.00 1/1 open 4.00 11/10 open 4.33 11/10 open 4.00 evn open 4.33 11/10 open 4.00 11/10 Coral
4 Marhaba Ya Tayib 9/2 open 8.00 4/1 open 7.50 10/3 open 7.50 10/3 open 7.50 9/2 open 7.50 4/1 open 7.50 9/2 Bet365
5 Premium Seat 33/1 open 51.00 28/1 open 81.00 28/1 open 81.00 28/1 open 81.00 28/1 open 81.00 28/1 open 81.00 33/1 Bet365
6 Romeo Guest 7/1 open 26.00 7/1 open 67.00 15/2 open 19.00 15/2 open 19.00 7/1 open 17.00 15/2 open 17.00 15/2 Coral
7 Falah Glory 15/2 open 13.00 8/1 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 open 10.00 15/2 open 10.00 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 Paddy Power
8 Seadreamin 40/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 101.00 28/1 open 34.00 40/1 Bet365
9 Sol Dorado 33/1 open 51.00 33/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 81.00 33/1 open 81.00 33/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 81.00 33/1 Bet365
10 Birkett Bank 8/1 open 7.00 8/1 open 11.00 8/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 15/2 open 10.00 8/1 open 9.50 8/1 Bet365
11 Black Treasure 40/1 open 67.00 35/1 open 101.00 20/1 open 101.00 20/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 101.00 33/1 open 101.00 40/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Tredegar Square

Live signal

Tredegar Square owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (87) and market confidence (49). There is still enough pricing upside to keep the pick from looking overexposed. The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

- James Fanshawe Oisin Murphy
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Marhaba Ya Tayib

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/2 · Richard Hughes
✓ Value Signal

Sol Dorado

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Marcus Tregoning
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +32.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +10.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge High conviction
80 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +8.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Live signal
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +7.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.2 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Tredegar Square
67.5 -
2 4. Marhaba Ya Tayib
66.3 9/2
3 7. Falah Glory
65.3 15/2
4 3. Find Your Fire
65.2 evn
5 10. Birkett Bank
62.2 8/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Tredegar Square
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 2 · 9-4
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 141 🐾

SR 141 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 2 · 9-4
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 136 🐾

SR 136 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 2 · 9-1
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 137 🐾

SR 137 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 2 · 8-13
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 137 🐾

SR 137 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 2 · 9-4
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 123 🐾

SR 123 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Tredegar Square
Confidence: Medium

Tredegar Square (SR:156, 4/6) is the standout on ability — a 4-point SR advantage over the next-best Find Your Fire (SR:152) and a massive 15+ point gap over the rest of the field. The horse has already won on debut (Form:1), confirming its SR translates to actual racecourse performance, and it steps down a class (ClassMv:↓1) which eases the task further. James Fanshawe (18% strike rate, 810 runners) is a reliable handler of juveniles, and Oisin Murphy (22%, 2674 runners) is an elite booking that Fanshawe would not waste on anything other than his intended winner. At 4/6 the market is essentially unanimous, and the 36lb drift on Marhaba Ya Tayib and the 84% drift on Birkett Bank confirm money is flowing in only one direction in this race. Each-way alternative: Find Your Fire. Main danger: Find Your Fire — Find Your Fire (SR:152, 11/4, Mkt:in20%) has steamed in 20% since opening, drops a class, and Stuart Williams with Marco Ghiani is a solid pairing — the SR gap to Tredegar Square is only 4 points, and on a first-time AW outing anything could compress that margin.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Tredegar Square has only one career run (Form:1) — a debut win on an unknown surface/trip. AW debut at Wolverhampton is unproven; that single data point tells us nothing about how it handles Tapeta.
  • Find Your Fire (SR:152, 11/4) has shortened 20% in the market while Tredegar Square sits at 4/6 — the money coming for the second favourite suggests connections of that rival are confident, narrowing…
  • 36 days since last run for a 2yo with just one race on its card; fitness and sharpness off that layoff on an AW track it has never encountered is a genuine question mark, especially with Falah Glory…
  • At 4/6 on an AW surface it has never raced on, the margin for error is slim — if Wolverhampton Tapeta doesn't suit, the odds offer no safety net and Find Your Fire at 11/4 is a materially shorter pri…
Shortlist Tredegar Square, Find Your Fire, Romeo Guest
Each-way: Find Your Fire Danger: Find Your Fire

🗺 The Course Class 5

6f20y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Wolverhampton (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade