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Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

18:00 Wolverhampton (AW) Tue 15 Sep 2026 6f20y Class 4 Good 12 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Not That Guy silks

Not That Guy

SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 SP 1/1F Est. 30%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Not That Guy (SR:154, 2/1) is the highest-rated proven runner in this field, with a 4-star AI probability and the best jockey booking by a wide margin — Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate is a strong positive signal. The 326-day absence is the main concern, but Hugo Palmer (13%, 1513 runners) is a trainer who knows how to have a horse ready on return, and the tongue-tie addition signals connections have been working this horse. At 2/1 the market has made him favourite for clear reasons: SR:154 is 1lb ahead of Inkberrow (SR:153) and 4lb clear of Iron Dome (SR:150), and in a novice with several debutants and limited exposed form, the highest-rated experienced runner with elite jockey support is the most defensible pick. Each-way alternative: Iron Dome. Main danger: Inkberrow — Inkberrow (SR:153, 11/4) is trained by Simon & Ed Crisford at a 20% career strike rate — the strongest trainer stat in the field — and as a debutant the market hasn't fully drifted despite a slight easing, meaning connections likely have solid homework on this horse; SR:153 is virtually identical to the selection and a big first-time run is entirely plausible.

Verify· #17934

Full result

Winner: Not That Guy (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Not That Guy silks Not That Guy Fox #1 Hugo Palmer · Oisin Murphy 11/10
  2. 2 Inkberrow silks Inkberrow Fox #2 Simon & Ed Crisford · Harry Davies 9/2
  3. 3 Ennoble silks Ennoble Antony Brittain · Cam Hardie 25/1
  4. 4 Iron Dome silks Iron Dome Fox #3 Clive Cox · Cieren Fallon 11/4
  5. 5 Beautiful Rumour silks Beautiful Rumour Scott Dixon · Kieran O'Neill 150/1
  6. 6 Dusk Damsel silks Dusk Damsel J. S. Moore · Millie Wonnacott(5) 33/1
  7. 7 Oddjob silks Oddjob Ed Walker · George Downing 15/2
  8. 8 Flag Of Nations silks Flag Of Nations Fox #4 William Muir & Chris Grassick · Lewis Edmunds 10/1
  9. 9 Sir Chops silks Sir Chops Steph Hollinshead · Luke Catton(3) 80/1
  10. 10 Coilltedudeisback silks Coilltedudeisback Adam Kirby · Charles Bishop 125/1
  11. 11 Blazing Gaden silks Blazing Gaden D. J. Jeffreys · Dougie Costello 200/1
  12. 12 Red Melody silks Red Melody Lisa Williamson · Ben Ffrench Davis(5) 125/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Not That Guy silks Not That Guy 2/1 SP 1/1F 🏆 WON
  2. 2 Inkberrow silks Inkberrow 11/4 🥈 2ND
  3. 3 Iron Dome silks Iron Dome 7/2 🏁 4TH
  4. 4 Flag Of Nations silks Flag Of Nations 15/2 8TH