← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Bad Dreams
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 SP 3/1 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Bad Dreams (SR 158, 11/8) carries the highest SR in the field and has been backed massively — a 48% market shortening is an enormous steamer signal that the connections are confident. Richard Spencer runs at a 15% strike rate from 644 runners, a solid yard, and Saffie Osborne is a capable booking on a well-regarded juvenile. Against an unraced field where SR is the primary differentiator, Bad Dreams's 158 SR is meaningfully superior to the next best (Flick of An Eye at 157, Channel Islands at 139, If You Like at 139). The weight cloth is level across all six runners at 9-7, removing any weight-in-soft-ground concern as a differentiating factor, and that steamer from a trainer who clearly believes the horse is ready to run a big race on debut seals the case. Each-way alternative: Flick of An Eye. Main danger: Flick of An Eye — Flick of An Eye (SR 157, 11/8) is within 1 SR point of Bad Dreams, trained by the high-strike-rate Simon & Ed Crisford yard (20%, 1121 runners), and has a run under its belt (form: 3) giving it a fitness edge over a debut runner — if Bad Dreams needs the experience, Flick of An Eye is right there to capitalise.
Full result
Winner: Bad Dreams (GB) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Bad Dreams Fox #1 3/1
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2
Caturra Rock 66/1
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3
I Am Royal 12/1
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4
Flick of An Eye Fox #2 8/13
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5
Channel Islands 14/1
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6
If You Like Fox #3 12/1
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Scenic Blue -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3