← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Punchestown Jumps Opener October 13th Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Zaraahmando
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Zaraahmando (SR:79, 9/2) is the strongest market mover in the field with a 22% market shortening — the most significant steaming of any runner — which carries real informational weight in a 16-runner handicap like this. Carrying 9-6, a favourable weight compared to top-weight Sonoran's 10-3, and with a GoingFit:~ on good ground, the yard has clearly targeted this race. The form string 623324 shows consistent placing without winning recently, which is exactly the profile of a horse running off a workable mark (MarkMv:+4, not punitive) that the market is backing to finally convert. Trainer A. Slattery at 11% strike rate with jockey Andrew Slattery (9%, 915 runners) is a tight connections combo, and the tongue-tie first application (HG:t) adds a legitimate physical improvement angle that often accompanies market support of this magnitude. Each-way alternative: Motta Alta. Main danger: Motta Alta — Motta Alta (SR:83, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field under Mrs J. Harrington (10%, 1576 runners) with Shane Foley aboard (11%, 1738 runners), and despite the drift (Mkt:out13%), the raw SR advantage of 4 points over Zaraahmando carried on a light 9-6 makes it the most credible form threat if the drift is simply positional rather than a genuine negative signal.
Full result
Winner: Follow Me (FR) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Follow Me 15/2
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2
Hassaniya 17/2
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3
Motta Alta Fox #2 5/1
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4
Flash Of Fire 15/2
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5
No More Porter 9/1
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6
Zaraahmando Fox #1 5/1
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7
Spodo Komodo 14/1
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8
Pillar Of Hope 16/1
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9
Sagasti Fox #4 8/1
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10
Frank Pickle 9/1
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11
Duke Of Leggagh 66/1
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12
Amenita 25/1
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13
Heliogabalus 20/1
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14
Molto Amichi 9/1
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—
Sonoran Fox #3 7/1
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—
Prince Andorra 22/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Zaraahmando 9/2 6TH
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2
Motta Alta 9/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Sonoran 7/1
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4
Sagasti 8/1 9TH