Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (Div II)

17:13 Punchestown Tue 15 Sep 2026 1m1f30y Good 17 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Nephin Mountain

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 22%

🏁 4TH

Mr Fox says

Nephin Mountain (SR:61, 11/2) is joint-highest rated in the field and carries a very manageable 9-8, giving it a clear weight advantage over heavier rivals at similar ability levels. The form string 516513 shows consistent competitiveness — a third last time out is solid recent evidence of peak condition, and the market has nudged in 5%, indicating quiet confidence from connections. Trainer Michael Mulvany at 9% with jockey Terry Casey (7lb claimer adding value at 7%) makes this an attractive combination at a fair price. Though GoingFit is flagged negative, the overall SR lead, weight profile, and market support outweigh that concern in a field where most runners carry similar or worse going reservations. Each-way alternative: Believe Believe. Main danger: Believe Believe — Believe Believe (SR:61, joint-highest, 11/4) carries the lightest weight of the top-rated pair at 9-7 and is trained by M D O'Callaghan at a strong 13% strike rate, though the 133-day absence and 17% market drift are genuine concerns that must be respected.

Verify· #17924

Full result

Winner: Believe Believe (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.