Casheldale Lass has experience over today's trip and going, and her second three starts back keeps her squarely in contention under 142 lb from stall one; the risk is that she has been winless in recent starts and her last two runs were disappointing.
Form last 67-0280
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
48SR62RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Gloriously Glam arrives here just 14 days after her last outing, boasting the highest rating in the field, and has run over today's trip and going before; a second three starts back suggests she retains ability, though she is winless in recent starts and will need to rediscover that form from stall 11 carrying 142 lb.
Form last 6385209
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR70RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Tero d'Rosa showed he can win when scoring five starts back, though four subsequent efforts have been modest, and a mark of 59 gives him little obvious room. He has run over today's distance and going, but consistency remains the concern.
Form last 6-16646
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR61RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Medieval Night was second two starts back but has since slipped to fifth, and he arrives winless in his last six starts carrying 138 lb from stall 17, with a trainer in particularly cold form at 0/23 over the past fortnight.
Form last 6047625
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
50SR62RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Glamazon bounced back from a ninth to finish third two starts back, and her experience over today's trip and going gives her a legitimate claim here; drawn in stall 16 carrying 134 lb, the main risk is her inconsistency, still winless in her last six starts.
Form last 6084930
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR66RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Nephin Mountain won two starts back and was third last time out, showing he retains some form, though his record in recent starts also includes a pair of fifths and a sixth; has run over today's trip and going, and 134 lb from stall 13 makes life no easier.
Form last 6516513
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
61SR56RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and absent for 133 days, Believe Believe has experience over today's trip and conditions yet must bounce back sharply after a string of disappointing efforts, though that runner-up finish last time out offers some encouragement from stall 15 off 133 lb.
Form last 66908-2
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR62RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 14th of 17 on our figures, Mullacurry Maid faces a stiff ask here, though she has run over today's distance and going before and returns after a 31-day break with experience to call on.
Form last 689-509
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
22SR49RPR51OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 22 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Dress Dance at least has experience of today's distance and going to call on, though her recent string of unplaced efforts — including seventh last time out, thirteen days ago — make it hard to fancy her landing a blow from stall seven off 132 lb.
Form last 6500-07
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR54RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 10/1.
Winless in his last three starts and ranked 13th of 17 on our figures, Eldorado Glory faces a stiff ask, with a struggling trainer firing at just 3% recently doing little to inspire confidence, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns after a quick 14-day turnaround.
Form last 6690
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
26SR51RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked well down the field on our figures, Miss Americana looks a tough sell here; she does arrive on a quick turnaround of 14 days, has experience over today's trip and going, and her third last time out at least shows she can run into a place.
Form last 6299273
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR48RPR42OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, with a pair of sevenths offering the only flickers of encouragement, Pinball Wizard arrives on a quick 13-day turnaround carrying 124 lb from stall four, and while he has run over today's trip and going before, his official rating of 42 leaves him with plenty to prove.
Form last 670-708
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
37SR53RPR42OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Autocrat has run over today's distance and going before, and our rating of 63 — well clear of his official mark — suggests he is significantly ahead of his assessed ability; drawn five and back quickly just 11 days after his last outing, the main concern is a winless recent run of six starts.
Form last 6700098
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
30SR63RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 30 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 16 of 17 on our figures, Peig Sayers faces a stiff task here, though she has run over today's trip and going before and returns after a 32-day break at least fresh.
Form last 6-00800
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
27SR48RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Winless in her last five starts, though Keilah did finish second five starts back and arrives here fit on a ten-day turnaround, with experience over today's trip and going in her favour; three unplaced efforts in her most recent outings make improvement essential from stall three off 136 lb.
Form last 62U-700
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
31SR58RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked 12 of 17 on our figures, De Songbird faces a stiff task from stall 10 under 123 lb, though she has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a sharp ten-day turnaround.
Form last 6607700
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
29SR53RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in her last five starts, with a pair of ninths and three unplaced efforts making grim reading, Hastily is ranked last on our figures here and looks very hard to fancy, though she has run over today's trip and going before and comes in fresh off a 53-day break.
Form last 69-0009
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
25SR38RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Believe Believe owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (34) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4M D O'CallaghanJamie Powell
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Nephin Mountain
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Michael Mulvany✓ Value Signal
De Songbird
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · T G McCourt◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Nephin Mountain (SR:61, 11/2) is joint-highest rated in the field and carries a very manageable 9-8, giving it a clear weight advantage over heavier rivals at similar ability levels. The form string 516513 shows consistent competitiveness — a third last time out is solid recent evidence of peak condition, and the market has nudged in 5%, indicating quiet confidence from connections. Trainer Michael Mulvany at 9% with jockey Terry Casey (7lb claimer adding value at 7%) makes this an attractive combination at a fair price. Though GoingFit is flagged negative, the overall SR lead, weight profile, and market support outweigh that concern in a field where most runners carry similar or worse going reservations.
Each-way alternative: Believe Believe.
Main danger: Believe Believe — Believe Believe (SR:61, joint-highest, 11/4) carries the lightest weight of the top-rated pair at 9-7 and is trained by M D O'Callaghan at a strong 13% strike rate, though the 133-day absence and 17% market drift are genuine concerns that must be respected.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Believe Believe is joint-highest rated (SR:61) yet priced at 11/4 — less than half Nephin Mountain's 11/2 — suggesting the market rates it significantly superior; trained by O'Callaghan (13% strike r…
GoingFit flagged negative for Nephin Mountain is a concrete issue, not a minor one; several rivals (Tero d'Rosa, Medieval Night, Glamazon) carry no such going flag, meaning conditions may actively di…
Terry Casey is a 7lb claimer with only a 7% win rate from 99 rides — a modest book — and claiming allowance benefit is nullified at 9-8 once the claim is stripped away, offering less real value than…
Market move of only +5% (in) is weak compared to Dress Dance's 45% in-move and Pinball Wizard's 23% in-move; connections' 'quiet confidence' is not reflected by the broader market, which is clearly m…