Punchestown 17:13 RESULTED
15 Sep 2026

Tuesday 15 September Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (Div II)

Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (Div II) · 1m1f30y

Official Result

Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (Div II)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Believe Believe (IRE) Jamie Powell · M D O'Callaghan
    5/1
  2. 4/1J
  3. 17/2
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Settled
  • 17 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 6 days, 11 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Casheldale Lass silks
Casheldale Lass
Age 4 · 10-2
7-0280
60
48
62
4
10-2
7/1 5/1 7/1
Casheldale Lass has experience over today's trip and going, and her second three starts back keeps her squarely in contention under 142 lb from stall one; the risk is that she has been winless in recent starts and her last two runs were disappointing.
AI verdict

SR 48 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Gloriously Glam silks
Gloriously Glam
Age 4 · 10-2
385209
60
39
70
4
10-2
25/1 12/1 25/1
Gloriously Glam arrives here just 14 days after her last outing, boasting the highest rating in the field, and has run over today's trip and going before; a second three starts back suggests she retains ability, though she is winless in recent starts and will need to rediscover that form from stall 11 carrying 142 lb.
AI verdict

SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

3
Tero d'Rosa silks
Tero d'Rosa
Age 4 · 10-1
-16646
59
53
61
4
10-1
11/2 5/1 11/2
Tero d'Rosa showed he can win when scoring five starts back, though four subsequent efforts have been modest, and a mark of 59 gives him little obvious room. He has run over today's distance and going, but consistency remains the concern.
AI verdict

SR 53 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Medieval Night silks
Medieval Night
Age 4 · 9-12
047625
56
50
62
4
9-12
8/1 8/1 15/2
Medieval Night was second two starts back but has since slipped to fifth, and he arrives winless in his last six starts carrying 138 lb from stall 17, with a trainer in particularly cold form at 0/23 over the past fortnight.
AI verdict

SR 50 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Glamazon silks
Glamazon
Age 3 · 9-8
084930
58
55
66
3
9-8
9/1 15/2 17/2
Glamazon bounced back from a ninth to finish third two starts back, and her experience over today's trip and going gives her a legitimate claim here; drawn in stall 16 carrying 134 lb, the main risk is her inconsistency, still winless in her last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Nephin Mountain silks
Nephin Mountain
Age 3 · 9-8
516513
58
61
56
3
9-8
5/1 5/1 9/2
Nephin Mountain won two starts back and was third last time out, showing he retains some form, though his record in recent starts also includes a pair of fifths and a sixth; has run over today's trip and going, and 134 lb from stall 13 makes life no easier.
AI verdict

SR 61 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Believe Believe silks
Believe Believe
Age 3 · 9-7
6908-2
57
61
62
3
9-7
11/4 9/4 11/4
Winless in his last five starts and absent for 133 days, Believe Believe has experience over today's trip and conditions yet must bounce back sharply after a string of disappointing efforts, though that runner-up finish last time out offers some encouragement from stall 15 off 133 lb.
AI verdict

SR 61 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Mullacurry Maid silks
Mullacurry Maid
Age 4 · 9-7
89-509
51
22
49
4
9-7
100/1 80/1 100/1
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 14th of 17 on our figures, Mullacurry Maid faces a stiff ask here, though she has run over today's distance and going before and returns after a 31-day break with experience to call on.
AI verdict

SR 22 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.

9
Dress Dance silks
Dress Dance
Age 4 · 9-6
500-07
50
47
54
4
9-6
15/2 11/1 6/1
Winless in her last five starts, Dress Dance at least has experience of today's distance and going to call on, though her recent string of unplaced efforts — including seventh last time out, thirteen days ago — make it hard to fancy her landing a blow from stall seven off 132 lb.
AI verdict

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 10/1.

10
Eldorado Glory silks
Eldorado Glory
Age 3 · 9-2
690
52
26
51
3
9-2
40/1 22/1 40/1
Winless in his last three starts and ranked 13th of 17 on our figures, Eldorado Glory faces a stiff ask, with a struggling trainer firing at just 3% recently doing little to inspire confidence, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns after a quick 14-day turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

11
Miss Americana silks
Miss Americana
Age 4 · 8-12
299273
42
51
48
4
8-12
9/2 5/1 9/2
Winless in her last six starts and ranked well down the field on our figures, Miss Americana looks a tough sell here; she does arrive on a quick turnaround of 14 days, has experience over today's trip and going, and her third last time out at least shows she can run into a place.
AI verdict

SR 51 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Pinball Wizard silks
Pinball Wizard
Age 8 · 8-12
70-708
42
37
53
8
8-12
14/1 18/1 12/1
Winless in his last five starts, with a pair of sevenths offering the only flickers of encouragement, Pinball Wizard arrives on a quick 13-day turnaround carrying 124 lb from stall four, and while he has run over today's trip and going before, his official rating of 42 leaves him with plenty to prove.
AI verdict

SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

13
Autocrat silks
Autocrat
Age 6 · 8-10
700098
40
30
63
6
8-10
25/1 18/1 22/1
Autocrat has run over today's distance and going before, and our rating of 63 — well clear of his official mark — suggests he is significantly ahead of his assessed ability; drawn five and back quickly just 11 days after his last outing, the main concern is a winless recent run of six starts.
AI verdict

SR 30 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
Peig Sayers silks
Peig Sayers
Age 5 · 8-10
-00800
40
27
48
5
8-10
14/1 28/1 10/1
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 16 of 17 on our figures, Peig Sayers faces a stiff task here, though she has run over today's trip and going before and returns after a 32-day break at least fresh.
AI verdict

SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

15
Keilah silks
Keilah
Age 6 · 9-10
2U-700
54
31
58
6
9-10
20/1
Winless in her last five starts, though Keilah did finish second five starts back and arrives here fit on a ten-day turnaround, with experience over today's trip and going in her favour; three unplaced efforts in her most recent outings make improvement essential from stall three off 136 lb.
AI verdict

SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

16
De Songbird silks
De Songbird
Age 3 · 8-11
607700
TBA
47
29
53
3
8-11
33/1
Winless in her last six starts and ranked 12 of 17 on our figures, De Songbird faces a stiff task from stall 10 under 123 lb, though she has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a sharp ten-day turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

17
Hastily silks
Hastily
Age 7 · 8-10
9-0009
40
25
38
7
8-10
20/1
Winless in her last five starts, with a pair of ninths and three unplaced efforts making grim reading, Hastily is ranked last on our figures here and looks very hard to fancy, though she has run over today's trip and going before and comes in fresh off a 53-day break.
AI verdict

SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Casheldale Lass 7/1 open 6.00 10/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 7.00 9/1 open 7.00 9/1 open 7.00 9/1 open 9.00 10/1 Paddy Power
2 Gloriously Glam 25/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 28/1 Paddy Power
3 Tero d'Rosa 11/2 open 8.50 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 6/1 11/2 open 7.50 6/1 William Hill
4 Medieval Night 8/1 15/2 open 9.00 15/2 open 9.00 15/2 open 9.00 15/2 open 9.00 15/2 open 9.00 8/1 Bet365
5 Glamazon 9/1 open 12.00 17/2 open 8.50 17/2 open 10.00 17/2 open 10.00 9/1 17/2 open 9.00 9/1 Bet365
6 Nephin Mountain 5/1 open 7.50 9/2 open 6.00 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.00 5/1 Bet365
7 Believe Believe 11/4 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 Paddy Power
8 Mullacurry Maid 100/1 110/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 110/1 Paddy Power
9 Dress Dance 15/2 open 17.00 6/1 open 21.00 7/1 open 19.00 7/1 open 19.00 7/1 open 19.00 7/1 open 12.00 15/2 Bet365
10 Eldorado Glory 40/1 open 23.00 66/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 29.00 66/1 Paddy Power
11 Miss Americana 9/2 open 6.00 5/1 open 7.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 Betfred
12 Pinball Wizard 14/1 open 26.00 12/1 open 19.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 19.00 14/1 Bet365
13 Autocrat 25/1 22/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 Bet365
14 Peig Sayers 14/1 open 41.00 14/1 open 29.00 12/1 open 34.00 12/1 open 34.00 12/1 open 34.00 10/1 open 29.00 14/1 Bet365
15 Keilah 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 Betfred
16 De Songbird 33/1 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 Paddy Power
17 Hastily 20/1 25/1 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 25/1 Paddy Power

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Believe Believe

Speculative

Believe Believe owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (34) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 M D O'Callaghan Jamie Powell
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Nephin Mountain

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Michael Mulvany
✓ Value Signal

De Songbird

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · T G McCourt
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +12.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
29 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 7. Believe Believe
48.5 11/4
2 6. Nephin Mountain
48.1 5/1
3 4. Medieval Night
44.5 8/1
4 11. Miss Americana
43.5 9/2
5 3. Tero d'Rosa
43.1 11/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Nephin Mountain
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

7
Age 3 · 9-7
11/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾

SR 61 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 4 · 8-12
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 51 🐾

SR 51 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-8
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 61 🐾

SR 61 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 4 · 10-1
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 53 🐾

SR 53 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 10-2
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 48 🐾

SR 48 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 4 · 9-6
15/2
★☆☆☆☆ SR 47 🐾

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 10/1.

4
Age 4 · 9-12
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 50 🐾

SR 50 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-8
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾

SR 55 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 8 · 8-12
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 37 🐾

SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

14
Age 5 · 8-10
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 27 🐾

SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

15
Age 6 · 9-10
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 31 🐾

SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

17
Age 7 · 8-10
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 25 🐾

SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Nephin Mountain
Confidence: Speculative

Nephin Mountain (SR:61, 11/2) is joint-highest rated in the field and carries a very manageable 9-8, giving it a clear weight advantage over heavier rivals at similar ability levels. The form string 516513 shows consistent competitiveness — a third last time out is solid recent evidence of peak condition, and the market has nudged in 5%, indicating quiet confidence from connections. Trainer Michael Mulvany at 9% with jockey Terry Casey (7lb claimer adding value at 7%) makes this an attractive combination at a fair price. Though GoingFit is flagged negative, the overall SR lead, weight profile, and market support outweigh that concern in a field where most runners carry similar or worse going reservations. Each-way alternative: Believe Believe. Main danger: Believe Believe — Believe Believe (SR:61, joint-highest, 11/4) carries the lightest weight of the top-rated pair at 9-7 and is trained by M D O'Callaghan at a strong 13% strike rate, though the 133-day absence and 17% market drift are genuine concerns that must be respected.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Believe Believe is joint-highest rated (SR:61) yet priced at 11/4 — less than half Nephin Mountain's 11/2 — suggesting the market rates it significantly superior; trained by O'Callaghan (13% strike r…
  • GoingFit flagged negative for Nephin Mountain is a concrete issue, not a minor one; several rivals (Tero d'Rosa, Medieval Night, Glamazon) carry no such going flag, meaning conditions may actively di…
  • Terry Casey is a 7lb claimer with only a 7% win rate from 99 rides — a modest book — and claiming allowance benefit is nullified at 9-8 once the claim is stripped away, offering less real value than…
  • Market move of only +5% (in) is weak compared to Dress Dance's 45% in-move and Pinball Wizard's 23% in-move; connections' 'quiet confidence' is not reflected by the broader market, which is clearly m…
Shortlist Nephin Mountain, Believe Believe, Tero d'Rosa, Dress Dance
Each-way: Believe Believe Danger: Believe Believe

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m1f30y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
17 Confirmed runners
Punchestown Track and setting