← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Suir Blueway Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Ella's Gold
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/2 Est. 24%
Mr Fox says
Ella's Gold (SR:57, 13/2) is one of the two joint-highest rated runners in the field and carries a favourable weight of 10-1, lighter than top-weight John La Bear (10-2). Critically, she is the only runner in the field with a confirmed DistFit:+ at today's 1m1f168y trip, which is a decisive edge in a race where the majority of rivals show DistFit:? or DistFit:-. The market has shortened by 16% since opening — the sharpest steaming move in the field — suggesting informed support from connections. Ben Coen (11% career strike rate from 1,783 rides) is a meaningful upgrade in the saddle, and the 8-day turnaround from a yard operating at 8% win rate indicates confidence in current fitness. Each-way alternative: Concaire. Main danger: Concaire — Concaire (SR:61, 10/3) is the highest-rated horse in the field, ridden by W. J. Lee who strikes at 15% career rate, and at 9-12 carries a lighter weight than Ella's Gold — if the DistFit:? proves a non-issue over this trip, his superior SR makes him a genuine winning threat.
Full result
Winner: Mare Crisium (IRE) at SP 9/2C. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mare Crisium Fox #3 4/1
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2
Ochtar Againn 33/1
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3
Borora Aura 12/1
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4
Cadreville 6/1
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5
Concaire Fox #2 7/2
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6
Garryowen Green 14/1
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7
Queen Of Astolat 28/1
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8
Ella's Gold Fox #1 6/1
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9
John La Bear 12/1
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10
Sweetie Too 11/1
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11
Arizona Star 11/2
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12
Zitkala Sa 28/1
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13
Incredible Army 33/1
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14
Mrs Lady Bella 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ella's Gold 13/2 8TH
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2
Concaire 10/3 5TH
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3
Mare Crisium 7/2 SP 9/2C 🏆 WON