← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Safe Point Sprint Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Ashina
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Ashina (SR 154, 5/2) is the highest-rated runner in a small novice field and carries a favourable 5lb weight advantage over the similarly-priced Albert Mooney and Our Son Oscar by virtue of the 9-2 vs 9-7 comparison. Cieren Fallon's 18% career strike rate is comfortably the best jockey booking in the race, and David O'Meara's 13% strike rate from nearly 2,900 runners is a consistently productive yard. Her form line of 6-3 (third most recently) shows improvement and while both runs are moderate on the surface, the SR of 154 places her well above the competitive threshold for a Class 4 novice over 6f at Pontefract. The market drift of 20% is a mild concern but in a field where the market leader (What A Girl Wants) carries an SR of just 89, the drift likely reflects punters following a steamer rather than genuine negative intelligence about Ashina. Each-way alternative: Our Son Oscar. Main danger: Our Son Oscar — Our Son Oscar (SR 152, 5/2) holds the second-highest SR in the field, has course form (W0P1 at Pontefract), and Kevin Ryan's yard at 12% from 1,648 runners is a reliable outfit — the combination of course familiarity and near-equal ability makes him the most credible threat to Ashina.
Full result
Winner: Our Son Oscar (IRE) at SP 4/6F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Our Son Oscar Fox #2 6/4
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2
What A Girl Wants 11/4
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3
World Star 66/1
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4
Ashina Fox #1 9/4
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5
Albert Mooney Fox #3 17/2
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6
Ubettanotblink 125/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3