← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Mirzimaan
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Mirzimaan (SR:89, 11/2) has steamed in 35% from its opening price — the most significant market move in the race by a clear margin — and that money is almost certainly informed given trainer George Boughey's 18% strike rate and jockey Billy Loughnane's 18% career record, a formidable partnership. The SR:89 matches Soldier of The Sea at the top of the field but Mirzimaan carries 5lb less (9-5 vs 9-10), a meaningful weight advantage on good-to-soft ground. The form reads 0120: a recent win, with the last run a wide-margin defeat that is clearly excused by the handicapper given this class drop of two tiers. The combination of top SR, lightest competitive weight among the leading horses, elite market confidence, and a strong trainer-jockey booking makes this the standout pick. Each-way alternative: Soldier of The Sea. Main danger: Catching Dreams — Charlie Appleby's 33% trainer strike rate is the best in the field by a distance, and Catching Dreams (SR:84, 2/1) is the market favourite — a yard of that calibre firing at a Class 4 nursery with a horse running off the same class mark is a genuine threat even with an apprentice booking and only two career runs.
Full result
Winner: Eighth Immortal (IRE) at SP 6/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Eighth Immortal Fox #4 11/2
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2
Conciliate 18/1
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3
Mirzimaan Fox #1 6/1
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4
Dubai Charm 15/2
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5
Catching Dreams Fox #3 3/1
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6
Bill The Bull 12/1
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7
Easy Answer 6/1
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8
Soldier of The Sea Fox #2 7/2
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Sydney Grace 7/1
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Troublesome Guest 16/1
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Spirit of Lyra -
Top 4 — how each finished
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4