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Ladbrokes 'Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer' Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Diplomata
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/4 SP 5/2F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Diplomata (SR 82, 5/4) is the clear class leader in this field — an SR of 82 is materially superior to the next-best One Shot Kodi (SR 74) and Motown Filly (SR 75). The William Haggas/Tom Marquand combination carries a 23%/16% strike rate respectively, representing elite handler credentials for a Class 4 nursery at Ayr. The form string 4531 shows progressive improvement culminating in a last-time-out win, and proven distance aptitude (DistFit:+) at this 7f50y trip is a concrete edge in a field where every other runner shows DistFit:? The MarkMv:+10 and ClassMv:↑1 are genuine concerns — stepping up in class off a 10lb higher mark after winning is a standard nursery penalty — but the SR advantage over the opposition is wide enough to absorb both, and Marquand's experience makes the most of the weight (9-5). Each-way alternative: One Shot Kodi. Main danger: One Shot Kodi — One Shot Kodi (SR 74, 5/1) carries the lightest weight of the main contenders at 8-11, is stepping up in class having shown a progressive form line 8742 with a close second last time, and at 5/1 has been held in the market by punters without drifting — soft ground may also help a horse that hasn't been able to win on quicker surfaces.
Full result
Winner: Diplomata (GB) at SP 5/2F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Diplomata Fox #1 11/8
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2
One Shot Kodi Fox #2 6/1
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3
Motown Filly Fox #3 9/2
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4
Global Success 20/1
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5
Missouri Waltz 8/1
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6
Necromancer 6/1
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7
Bai Tong 18/1
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8
Sara's Silver Girl 25/1
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Texting 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3