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Mr Fox’s call
Daonethatgotaway
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Daonethatgotaway (SR:69, 15/2) is the most compelling play when signals are aggregated across the board. The 18% market steam is the single most eye-catching move in the race — money is piling in from 15/2 down, and that kind of move in an apprentice handicap at Dundalk typically reflects stable confidence. Course form is exceptional: W3P13 at this track is a Dundalk specialist profile rarely seen in a field of 11, and GoingFit:+ confirms she handles today's surface. At 9-7 she is on a workable weight, and while the SR of 69 sits below the top of the field, in a moderate AW handicap the course specialisation and market move outweigh a raw ability gap. The MarkMv:+3 is not punishing, and Mark Fahey's 13% strike rate with Reese Holohan (11%) is a solid booking for the grade. Each-way alternative: Kilcrea Rock. Main danger: Kilcrea Rock — Kilcrea Rock (SR:83, the highest ability runner in the field from JP O'Brien's powerful yard) carries the best raw SR and Course:W1P1, and even with an 18% drift and 57 days off, a horse of this class dropping into a €9,000 apprentice handicap can dominate on ability alone if fit.
Full result
Winner: Kilcrea Rock (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Kilcrea Rock Fox #2 5/1
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2
Merlin The Wizard 11/2
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3
Direct Approach 25/1
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4
Diamond Exchange 6/1
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5
Wandering Rocks 40/1
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6
Trishuli River 14/1
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7
Nakasero Fox #4 9/2
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8
Celtic Druid 7/1
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9
Pavilion End Fox #3 7/2
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10
Daonethatgotaway Fox #1 9/1
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—
Cozone 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Daonethatgotaway 15/2 10TH
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2
Kilcrea Rock 5/1 SP 4/1 🏆 WON
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3
Pavilion End 4/1 9TH
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4
Nakasero 9/2 7TH