Dundalk (AW) 19:30 RESULTED
18 Sep 2026

Last Friday Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap

Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap · 1m4f0y

Official Result

Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Kilcrea Rock (IRE) Shay Wallace · Joseph Patrick O'Brien
    4/1
  2. 5/1
  3. 33/1
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13:20–17:20 · 8 races

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16:02–20:15 · 9 races

Dundalk (AW)

17:25–20:30 · 7 races

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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 11 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Diamond Exchange silks
Diamond Exchange
Age 4 · 10-0
187518
80
77
82
4
10-0
6/1 FCST 11/2
Diamond Exchange won two starts back and has run over today's trip and going, giving her a solid platform at 140 lb with our rating of 82 supporting her claims as a leading danger; the risk is that eighth last time out leaves a question mark over current form.
AI verdict

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Kilcrea Rock silks
Kilcrea Rock
Age 4 · 10-0
3-2516
80
83
83
4
10-0
5/1 4/1 5/1
Kilcrea Rock won two starts back and has experience of both today's trip and going, with our rating of 83 topping the field; the main risk is his sixth last time out suggesting he returns here having to bounce back from a below-par effort after 57 days off.
AI verdict

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Nakasero silks
Nakasero
Age 5 · 9-11
-28892
77
77
79
5
9-11
9/2 7/2 9/2
Twice placed in his last five starts but winless in that spell, Nakasero has experience of today's trip and conditions, though 46 days off and a stiff 137 lb to carry are the checks against his most recent second.
AI verdict

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Merlin The Wizard silks
Merlin The Wizard
Age 6 · 9-8
119656
74
71
81
6
9-8
11/2
Merlin The Wizard has back-to-back wins in his recent record and returns on a quick turnaround of 18 days, suggesting he arrives in good order; carrying 134 lb off a mark of 74 is the chief concern, though his experience over today's trip and going keeps him firmly in the picture.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Pavilion End silks
Pavilion End
Age 6 · 9-8
900233
74
82
80
6
9-8
7/2 3/1 10/3
Pavilion End arrives in solid nick, placed in three of his last four starts including a second three starts back, and has run over today's trip and going before; yet to score in recent starts, he rates a strong each-way prospect on a mark of 74.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Daonethatgotaway silks
Daonethatgotaway
Age 6 · 9-7
207905
73
69
72
6
9-7
9/1 7/1 9/1
Winless in his last six starts, Daonethatgotaway is hard to fancy ranked ninth of eleven on our figures, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a quick 14-day turnaround, at least suggesting he arrives fit.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Trishuli River silks
Trishuli River
Age 6 · 9-7
230080
73
59
68
6
9-7
14/1 16/1 14/1
Winless in her last six starts with unplaced efforts dominating her recent figures, Trishuli River looks hard to fancy ranked tenth of eleven on our ratings, though she has run over today's distance and going before and a third and second do feature further back in that sequence.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

8
Wandering Rocks silks
Wandering Rocks
Age 7 · 9-7
/47538
73
58
77
7
9-7
40/1 16/1 40/1
Winless in his last five starts and absent for 115 days, Wandering Rocks arrives with fitness questions to answer, though a third two starts back shows he can threaten the places, and he has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

9
Celtic Druid silks
Celtic Druid
Age 5 · 9-3
147327
69
65
64
5
9-3
7/1 12/1 7/1
Celtic Druid has shown he can place — a second two starts back and a third three starts back hint at ability — but a seventh last time out and a rating that leaves him at the foot of our rankings make him very hard to fancy here despite the distance and going experience.
AI verdict

SR 65 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Direct Approach silks
Direct Approach
Age 4 · 9-3
792-
69
59
74
4
9-3
25/1 14/1 25/1
Direct Approach ran second last time out but has been inconsistent in recent starts, finishing seventh and ninth prior to that; yet to win in his last three, though the weight of 129 lb and a rating nudging above his official mark suggest there is latent ability to unlock.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

11
Cozone silks
Cozone
Age 9 · 9-1
0086/8
67
54
76
9
9-1
33/1
Winless in his last five starts, Cozone at least returns on a sharp 14-day turnaround and has run over today's trip and going before, while a speed rating of 83 offers mild encouragement — yet his sequence of eighths and sixths makes improvement hard to predict at 127 lb.
AI verdict

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Diamond Exchange 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 6/1 Bet365
2 Kilcrea Rock 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 Bet365
3 Nakasero 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 9/2 Bet365
4 Merlin The Wizard 11/2 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 Bet365
5 Pavilion End 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 4.00 10/3 open 4.50 10/3 open 4.50 7/2 10/3 open 4.50 7/2 Bet365
6 Daonethatgotaway 9/1 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 Bet365
7 Trishuli River 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 Bet365
8 Wandering Rocks 40/1 open 21.00 50/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 17.00 40/1 open 17.00 40/1 open 17.00 40/1 open 17.00 50/1 Paddy Power
9 Celtic Druid 7/1 open 13.00 15/2 open 15.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 15.00 15/2 Paddy Power
10 Direct Approach 25/1 open 15.00 33/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 17.00 33/1 Paddy Power
11 Cozone 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Pavilion End

Speculative

Pavilion End owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Charles O'Brien Sam Coen
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Kilcrea Rock

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien
✓ Value Signal

Wandering Rocks

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · William Durkan
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 5. Pavilion End
51.9 7/2
2 2. Kilcrea Rock
51.3 5/1
3 1. Diamond Exchange
50.2 6/1
4 3. Nakasero
49.1 9/2
5 6. Daonethatgotaway
47.5 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Daonethatgotaway
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 6 · 9-8
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 9-11
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 77 🐾

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 10-0
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 83 🐾

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 6 · 9-8
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 77 🐾

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 5 · 9-3
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 6 · 9-7
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 6 · 9-7
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Daonethatgotaway
Confidence: Speculative

Daonethatgotaway (SR:69, 15/2) is the most compelling play when signals are aggregated across the board. The 18% market steam is the single most eye-catching move in the race — money is piling in from 15/2 down, and that kind of move in an apprentice handicap at Dundalk typically reflects stable confidence. Course form is exceptional: W3P13 at this track is a Dundalk specialist profile rarely seen in a field of 11, and GoingFit:+ confirms she handles today's surface. At 9-7 she is on a workable weight, and while the SR of 69 sits below the top of the field, in a moderate AW handicap the course specialisation and market move outweigh a raw ability gap. The MarkMv:+3 is not punishing, and Mark Fahey's 13% strike rate with Reese Holohan (11%) is a solid booking for the grade. Each-way alternative: Kilcrea Rock. Main danger: Kilcrea Rock — Kilcrea Rock (SR:83, the highest ability runner in the field from JP O'Brien's powerful yard) carries the best raw SR and Course:W1P1, and even with an 18% drift and 57 days off, a horse of this class dropping into a €9,000 apprentice handicap can dominate on ability alone if fit.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Recent form reads 207905 — the '0' and '9' finishes (last two runs visible) suggest she is out of form, and the 'W3P13' course record masks a horse that places far more than it wins at Dundalk.
  • SR:69 is the third-lowest in the field; Kilcrea Rock (SR:83), Pavilion End (SR:82), Diamond Exchange (SR:77) and Nakasero (SR:77) all carry significantly superior ability ratings, a meaningful gap in…
  • The MarkMv:+3 rise means she is 3lb higher than her last winning mark, and with no win in her last several starts the handicapper is not giving her an obvious entry point — she looks to be chasing he…
  • Trishuli River (SR:59, W4P11 at Dundalk) steamed in 13% and shares the same going preference (tp), directly competing for the 'Dundalk specialist' angle at considerably bigger odds, diluting the edge…
Shortlist Daonethatgotaway, Kilcrea Rock, Pavilion End, Nakasero
Each-way: Kilcrea Rock Danger: Kilcrea Rock

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m4f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Dundalk (AW) Track and setting