Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap Stakes

14:30 Ayr Sat 19 Sep 2026 0m6f0y Class 2 Soft 25 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Deep Havana

SPECULATIVE Advised 13/2 Est. 22%

12TH

Mr Fox says

Deep Havana (SR 101, 13/2) is the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin and arrives on the back of a six-run sequence reading 622221 — sustained improvement culminating in a win last time. The market has backed this up emphatically with a 30% inward move from opening prices, James Doyle booking (21% career strike rate, 1177 runners) signals serious intent from the yard, and crucially the DistFit:+ confirms a proven record at 6f. The class rise (↑1) is the one concern, but a SR of 101 in a field where the next best are in the low-to-mid 90s gives a meaningful ability edge, and the weight of 9-12 is shared by three others so there is no punitive penalty. GoingFit:? means soft ground is untested rather than proven against him, but the strong late market move suggests connections are untroubled by the conditions. Each-way alternative: Desert Falcon. Main danger: Toyotomi — Toyotomi (SR 99, 4/1) is the most prominent market mover of the shortlist at Mkt:in21% with Oisin Murphy (22% strike rate) booked, and despite a DistFit:- flag and an inconsistent recent form line (631060), the price compression suggests stable confidence that could represent a hidden bounce-back performance in soft ground conditions where fitness from a recent run six days ago may count.

Verify· #18604

Full result

Winner: Station X (GB) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.