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British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

16:15 Ayr Sat 19 Sep 2026 0m7f50y Class 2 Soft 9 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Rogue Constelation silks

Rogue Constelation

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Rogue Constelation carries the highest SR in the field at 153 — a clear 5-point edge over Golden Souk (SR 148) — and crucially the market has steamed in 33% from opening, the strongest inbound move among any runner with genuine ability. Trainer Edward Bethell operates at an 18% strike rate from over 1,000 career runners, a solid platform, and Daniel Tudhope at 18% from nearly 1,900 rides is a top-tier booking for the yard's debut runner. Golden Souk's 24% drift is a real concern despite the SR — the market is clearly telling us something is amiss with that one today. The weight is level across all nine runners at 9-7 (except the 9-2 outsiders), so there is no weight-based reason to prefer anything else. Each-way alternative: Golden Souk. Main danger: Amir Lehbab — Despite a low SR of 92, Amir Lehbab has steamed 17% in the market under Oisin Murphy for Andrew Balding (18% strike rate, 2,974 runners) and showed a 3-2 form line, suggesting connections believe the step to 7f50y on soft ground may unlock significant improvement from a horse whose official rating may not yet reflect its true ability.

Verify· #18676

Full result

Winner: Tyrrhenian Thunder (GB) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Tyrrhenian Thunder silks Tyrrhenian Thunder Adrian Keatley · M. P. Sheehy 9/1
  2. 2 Amir Lehbab silks Amir Lehbab Fox #3 Andrew Balding · Oisin Murphy 6/5
  3. 3 Rogue Constelation silks Rogue Constelation Fox #1 Edward Bethell · Daniel Tudhope 5/2
  4. 4 Black Gin silks Black Gin Ivan Furtado · Jason Hart 80/1
  5. 5 Nice Neasy Does It silks Nice Neasy Does It Tim Easterby · David Allan 100/1
  6. — Cagney silks Cagney Kevin Ryan · Kevin Stott 28/1
  7. — Golden Souk silks Golden Souk Fox #2 K. R. Burke · Clifford Lee 11/2
  8. — Gold Key silks Gold Key Fox #4 Kevin Ryan · Tom Eaves 10/1
  9. — Northern Crown silks Northern Crown Michael Dods · Paul Mulrennan 40/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Rogue Constelation silks Rogue Constelation 5/2 🥉 3RD
  2. 2 Golden Souk silks Golden Souk 4/1
  3. 3 Amir Lehbab silks Amir Lehbab 13/8 🥈 2ND
  4. 4 Gold Key silks Gold Key 17/2