← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Tabasko
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Tabasko (SR 79, 4/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a favourable 9-9, giving it a 3lb advantage over both Zimmerman and Melon despite its superior rating. The recent form of 4-5221 shows a horse in the process of improving — two consecutive wins lead into today — and Ed Walker's 16% strike rate from 1,532 runners is the strongest trainer record among genuine contenders. Dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) is another positive, suggesting the handicapper has handed connections an opportunity. The slight market drift to 5% in is modest but confirms the money is not running away from this horse, unlike Zimmerman who has drifted 25% — a significant red flag given Zimmerman's mark has risen 10lb since his last win (MarkMv:+10) and he is stepping UP a class. Each-way alternative: Spartan Times. Main danger: Melon — Melon (SR 74, 2/1) drops three classes — the biggest class relief in the field — has proven soft-ground form (GoingFit:+), and carries only 9-12 off a mark 53lb below its last win, making it a serious class dropper that could prove too good at this level despite 162 days off track.
Full result
Winner: Carthusian (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Carthusian 12/1
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2
Spartan Times Fox #4 4/1
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3
Melon Fox #3 11/8
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4
Zimmerman Fox #2 9/2
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5
Tabasko Fox #1 9/2
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6
Bulldog Spirit 33/1
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7
Risk Averse Rebel 12/1
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8
Wiltshire Wonder 50/1
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9
Kindly Queen 50/1
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10
Talka 33/1
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—
Dream Harder 40/1
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—
Al Za'ama 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Tabasko 4/1 5TH
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2
Zimmerman 7/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Melon 2/1 🥉 3RD
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4
Spartan Times 6/1 🥈 2ND