← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Turners British Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Flower Show
MEDIUM Advised 2/5 SP 2/5F Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Flower Show (SR 159, 2/5) is the standout on every meaningful metric. Her SR of 159 is a full 9 points clear of the next-best Zhuri (SR 150) and 22 points clear of Lily Pink (SR 145), placing her firmly in top-class territory on a scale where 160+ is elite. She drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) from her debut third, meaning she faces an easier task than when she last ran, and Charlie Appleby's 33% yard strike rate is the strongest in the field — a powerful top-end stable sending a filly here clearly expecting a win. The market has tightened 8% since opening (Mkt:in8%), confirming professional money is backing her at 2/5, not fading from her. Billy Loughnane, with an 18% career strike rate from over 3,000 rides, is a reliable partner and a positive booking from the Appleby operation. Each-way alternative: Zhuri. Main danger: Zhuri — Zhuri (SR 150) carries the Gosden brand and a top-yard 24% strike rate, and while she has drifted 27% in the market — suggesting she is not the stable's #1 choice — a debutant from this operation with an SR of 150 cannot be entirely dismissed if she shows raw ability on the day.
Full result
Winner: Flower Show (IRE) at SP 2/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Flower Show Fox #1 2/5
-
2
Lily Pink Fox #3 11/1
-
3
Gainful 14/1
-
4
Zhuri Fox #2 4/1
-
5
Miss You Nights 100/1
-
6
Catonahottinroof 18/1
-
7
Give Me A Bow 300/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3