← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Kinisla Kerrymaid Rated Novice Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Apple's Of Bresil
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Apple's Of Bresil (SR 163, 2/1) is the class standout in this five-runner novice chase, rated 11 points clear of the next-best Luker's Tipple and a full 28 above Ocastle Des Mottes. The DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ combination confirms proven ability at this trip and on good ground, which are the two most critical variables today. The last run ('1' rightmost in the form) shows a winning return, and while the 112-day absence is a note of caution, the tongue-tie (HG:t) suggests connections have thought carefully about preparation. The market at 2/1 is sensible without being extreme, and the SR advantage is simply too large to overcome for the opposition. Each-way alternative: Ocastle Des Mottes. Main danger: Ocastle Des Mottes — Ocastle Des Mottes (SR 135, 5/4) is trained by W. P. Mullins with Paul Townend in the saddle — a combination running at a 26%/38% strike rate respectively — has steamed in 14% in the market, ran just 13 days ago confirming fitness, and DistFit:+ means the trip is no concern; if the GoingFit:? resolves favourably on the day, that Mullins-Townend machine at a short price is the chief threat to Apple's Of Bresil.
Full result
Winner: Ocastle Des Mottes (FR) at SP 5/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Ocastle Des Mottes Fox #2 11/8
-
2
Apple's Of Bresil Fox #1 3/1
-
3
Sky Lord 5/2
-
4
Some Song 16/1
-
—
Luker's Tipple Fox #3 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Apple's Of Bresil 2/1 🥈 2ND
-
2
Ocastle Des Mottes 5/4 SP 5/4F 🏆 WON
-
3
Luker's Tipple 15/2