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Red Lion Llandyfaelog Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

16:19 Ffos Las Mon 21 Sep 2026 7f80y Class 4 Heavy 4 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Lucky Radar silks

Lucky Radar

SPECULATIVE Advised 4/5 SP 8/13F Est. 42%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Lucky Radar (SR 158) is comfortably the highest-rated runner in this field, sitting 25 points clear of the next-best at SR 133 — a gulf that translates to a substantial ability edge even in a four-runner novice. Oisin Murphy (22% strike rate, 2,701 career rides) is the standout jockey booking and rarely takes up mounts of this nature without confidence in the horse. The single form figure of '2' suggests a competitive debut and imminent improvement, and the same-class assignment (ClassMv:=) means connections are not overreaching. The 12% market drift from 4/5 is a mild concern — hence Medium rather than High confidence — likely reflecting the unexplored heavy-ground question (GoingFit:?) and the unknown trip (DistFit:?), but no rival has a credible SR or form case to oppose it. Each-way alternative: Circle of Secrets. Main danger: Just Johnny — Just Johnny has steamed in 27% in the market — the most significant market move in the race — suggesting stable confidence or significant inside information that the form figures and SR alone do not yet reflect.

Verify· #18990

Full result

Winner: Lucky Radar (IRE) at SP 8/13F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Lucky Radar silks Lucky Radar Fox #1 Rod Millman · Oisin Murphy 10/11
  2. 2 Just Johnny silks Just Johnny Fox #3 Alan Jones · Jack Nicholls(3) 20/1
  3. 3 Circle of Secrets silks Circle of Secrets Fox #2 Fergal O'Brien · Laura Coughlan(3) 14/1
  4. 4 Aerial Silk silks Aerial Silk David Menuisier · Saffie Osborne 5/4

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Lucky Radar silks Lucky Radar 4/5 SP 8/13F 🏆 WON
  2. 2 Circle of Secrets silks Circle of Secrets 18/1 🥉 3RD
  3. 3 Just Johnny silks Just Johnny 20/1 🥈 2ND