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Mr Fox’s call
Bay Breeze
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 SP 11/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Bay Breeze (SR:62, 7/2, 9-7) is the standout on a combination of signals: joint-highest SR in the field, confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's soft ground which is a key differentiator in a race where three rivals have GoingFit:- or GoingFit:?, course form of W0P2 at Hamilton, a mark that has dropped 9lb since last win (MarkMv:-9) giving a clear weight-on-handicap edge, and a market that has shortened 13% since opening — money is arriving with purpose. Tim Easterby (11% SR, 4,572 runners) is a volume trainer who knows when a horse is primed, and David Allan (13%) is a reliable booking at this level. The cheekpieces (HG:p) have been worn before, suggesting the yard is comfortable with the headgear configuration. The consistent recent form of 734463 shows a horse running to a level, not declining — and a drop of 9lb on the mark since last winning suggests the handicapper has given connections a real opportunity. Each-way alternative: Lesley's Boy. Main danger: Lesley's Boy — Lesley's Boy (SR:62, 7/2, 9-9) matches Bay Breeze on SR, carries a visor first-time or reapplied (HG:v) which can sharpen a horse significantly, and has steamed in 25% in the market — the strongest market move in the field — suggesting Fahey's yard and connections have strong confidence; the GoingFit:? is the only uncertainty, and if soft ground suits, this horse could readily upstage the selection.
Full result
Winner: Bay Breeze (GB) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Bay Breeze Fox #1 5/2
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2
Lesley's Boy Fox #2 10/3
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3
Edmond Halley 9/4
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4
Summerstorms Dream 12/1
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5
Ottawa Fox #4 8/1
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6
Sovereign Class 20/1
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7
Winter Crown 14/1
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Impressor Fox #3 9/2
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Cape Sovereign -
Top 4 — how each finished
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4