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Mr Fox’s call
El Lambo
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/1 SP 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
El Lambo (SR:60, 9/1) has steamed in 61% in the market — by far the most aggressive move in this field — signalling informed money on a horse dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) with a moderate distance fit (DistFit:~) and trainer Charles Hills operating at 15% strike rate. The 9-9 weight is manageable and the class drop from whatever defeated him in the 510650 sequence gives a live chance to exploit weaker rivals here. While his SR of 60 is not the highest in the field, the weight concession he gets versus Chianti (9-7 to his 9-9 is negligible) and the sheer scale of market support (61% in) cannot be ignored — that kind of move in a 11-runner Class 6 nursery strongly suggests connections have identified a winning opportunity. The form figure '0' last time is a concern but the class relief and strong market confidence outweigh it. Each-way alternative: Chianti. Main danger: Chianti — Chianti (SR:71, 10/3) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin, holds DistFit:+ at this exact trip, has placed at this course (Course:W0P1), and Archie Watson at 15% strike rate is a strong handler — despite the 28% market drift (likely Wolverhampton regulars taking the short price), the raw ability edge at 9-7 makes it the most dangerous rival to the pick.
Full result
Winner: El Lambo (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
El Lambo Fox #1 4/1
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2
Tree Wizard 28/1
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3
Calef 11/2
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4
Time And Effort 7/1
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5
C'Est Lui 14/1
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6
Chianti Fox #2 3/1
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7
Alpha Legend 14/1
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8
Lady of Hay Fox #3 5/1
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9
Mrs Mole Fox #4 12/1
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Last Dandelion 9/1
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Lola 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4