← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Distillation
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/4 SP 8/13F Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Distillation (SR 70, 6/4) is the clear class leader in this field — 7 SR points clear of Based (SR 63) and substantially ahead of the rest. Crucially, the market has backed this view emphatically, shortening 24% since opening, and the course record of W1P3 at Wolverhampton confirms she handles this track. Running off a mark only 2lb higher than her last win (MarkMv:+2), the moderate GoingFit:~ is the only mild concern, but at Class 6 with a dominant SR and strong course profile the case is compelling. Rose Dawes (5lb claim) on board reduces the effective weight burden further. Each-way alternative: Based. Main danger: Based — Based (SR 63, 7/2) has steamed in 19% in the market, holds W1P3 course form at Wolverhampton, and while DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are concerns, the strong market move suggests connections believe today's conditions suit better than the record implies.
Full result
Winner: Distillation (FR) at SP 8/13F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Distillation Fox #1 evn
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2
Ndoto 28/1
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3
Bungle Bay 17/2
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4
Based Fox #2 10/3
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5
Jackson Street Fox #3 13/2
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6
Nautical Sky 22/1
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7
Rain Cap 14/1
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8
Spruces Due 66/1
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9
Royal Justice 125/1
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—
Golden Harvest 20/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Distillation 6/4 SP 8/13F 🏆 WON
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2
Based 7/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Jackson Street 5/1 5TH