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Winter Festival Early Bird Ticket Claiming Race
Mr Fox’s call
Eighteenth Smiles
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/6 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Eighteenth Smiles leads the field on SR (89) by a clear 15-point margin over the next-best Shesthedevil (SR 74), a substantial gap in a modest 7-runner claimer with a prize of €6,000. The form string 550331 — read right-to-left — shows a win and two consecutive placed efforts most recently, indicating the horse is in decent nick and trending upward. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard operates at 16%, comfortably the strongest handler in the race, and while the 7% market drift is a mild concern, the GoingFit:- flag is the principal worry — this good ground may not be ideal. Against a field where no rival exceeds SR 74 and several are well below the workmanlike threshold, the class edge is compelling enough to overcome the going reservation. Each-way alternative: Cudawudashuda. Main danger: Cudawudashuda — Cudawudashuda (SR 59, 4/1) is trained by G.M. Lyons at 16% strike rate and ridden by Colin Keane (16%, 2315 career rides) — the most potent jockey-trainer combination in the race — and the addition of first-time blinkers (HG:b) on a horse with only three runs could produce a sharply improved performance, while a 4lb weight advantage over Eighteenth Smiles is meaningful on good ground at 7f.
Full result
Winner: Shesthedevil (IRE) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Shesthedevil Fox #3 15/8
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2
Cudawudashuda Fox #2 15/8
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3
Honey Deuce 9/2
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4
Somethingaboutlove 25/1
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5
Tio Joao 6/1
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6
Cloughleagh Bridge 14/1
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—
Eighteenth Smiles Fox #1 10/11
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Eighteenth Smiles 5/6
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2
Cudawudashuda 4/1 🥈 2ND
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3
Shesthedevil 4/1 SP 11/4 🏆 WON