← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap

17:27 Fairyhouse Mon 21 Sep 2026 0m7f0y Good 13 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Prevalence silks

Prevalence

SPECULATIVE Advised 6/1 SP 9/1 Est. 22%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Prevalence (SR:87, 6/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and holds proven distance and going credentials (DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+), the only runner to tick both boxes positively. Colin Keane (16% strike rate, 2315 career rides) is an elite booking that speaks to stable confidence, and at 9-0 equivalent weight (10-0 but top-rated) the burden is not prohibitive relative to what the SR edge delivers. The form figure 3010 shows a win four runs back but also recent disappointing runs — however, the +6 mark move and tongue-tie off suggest connections are targeting a specific opportunity here, and no rival can match the SR or the double-proven trip/going profile. Each-way alternative: Stars Will Shine. Main danger: Mai Dahlia — Mai Dahlia (SR:86, 4/1) ran 3-2-1 in her last three and is the O'Brien yard's designated #1 runner (better jockey booking than stablemate Never The Same, shorter price), with GoingFit:+ and a course place to her name — the drift to 4/1 is modest and may simply reflect the 79-day absence rather than a genuine stable signal against her.

Verify· #19040

Full result

Winner: Prevalence (GB) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Prevalence silks Prevalence Fox #1 G. M. Lyons · Colin Keane 17/2
  2. 2 Back Down Under silks Back Down Under Padraig Roche · Donagh O'Connor 9/1
  3. 3 Glory To Be silks Glory To Be M C Grassick · W. M. Lordan 8/1
  4. 4 Hugo's Girl silks Hugo's Girl Thomas Dowling · Rory Mulligan(5) 17/2
  5. 5 Treasure Rose silks Treasure Rose J. P. Murtagh · Ben Coen 11/1
  6. 6 Never The Same silks Never The Same Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Shay Wallace(7) 5/1
  7. 7 Mai Dahlia silks Mai Dahlia Fox #2 Joseph Patrick O'Brien · J M Sheridan 4/1
  8. 8 Temperance silks Temperance Miss Kate McGivern · Gavin Ryan 33/1
  9. 9 Stars Will Shine silks Stars Will Shine Fox #3 Noel Meade · R. P. Whelan 9/1
  10. 10 Thenandnow silks Thenandnow Mrs J. Harrington · Nathan Crosse 10/1
  11. 11 Noli Timere silks Noli Timere M D O'Callaghan · Jamie Powell 20/1
  12. 12 Bella Colombia silks Bella Colombia Fox #4 W. McCreery · W. J. Lee 15/2
  13. — Star Strewn silks Star Strewn C W J Farrell · Rory Cleary 18/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Prevalence silks Prevalence 6/1 SP 9/1 🏆 WON
  2. 2 Mai Dahlia silks Mai Dahlia 4/1 7TH
  3. 3 Stars Will Shine silks Stars Will Shine 9/1 9TH
  4. 4 Bella Colombia silks Bella Colombia 17/2 12TH