← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Pink Venom
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 SP 4/5F Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Pink Venom (SR:77, 10/3) leads this field in ability and carries just 8-13 — a 4lb advantage over top-weight April Mist (SR:82, 10-3) that meaningfully narrows the SR gap. The 17% market shortening is the most significant market signal in the race and suggests informed money backing connections' #1 from the Murtagh yard. A course placing (W0P1 at Fairyhouse) is relevant experience, and the 733 form string shows consistent placing without a disastrous run. Ben Coen (11%, 1800 runners) is clearly the yard's chosen jockey over Rory Mulligan on stablemate Prince Of Peppard, confirming stable intent. Each-way alternative: April Mist. Main danger: April Mist — April Mist has the highest SR in the field at 82 and is trained by G. M. Lyons (16% strike rate), and despite the 10-3 weight burden the market holds her at 4/1 with no drift signal, suggesting the handicapper's assessment of her ability is respected.
Full result
Winner: Pink Venom (IRE) at SP 4/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Pink Venom Fox #1 9/4
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2
Prince Of Peppard 15/2
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3
Stormy Dawn 40/1
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4
Captain James Cook 9/2
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5
Scarlet Dream 7/1
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6
Ocean Surge Fox #3 7/2
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7
April Mist Fox #2 11/2
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—
Bold Commander 5/1
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—
Lily Bear 22/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Pink Venom 10/3 SP 4/5F 🏆 WON
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2
April Mist 4/1 7TH
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3
Ocean Surge 9/2 6TH