Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap

18:57 Fairyhouse Mon 21 Sep 2026 0m6f0y Good 18 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Nouvel Espoir

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 18%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Nouvel Espoir (SR:67, 11/2) holds the second-highest SR in the field and carries a workable 9-10, giving a meaningful weight advantage over top-weight Clonmacash (10-5, SR:71). The form string 414432 shows consistent placed efforts at this class level — the horse has been knocking on the door throughout, and Colin Keane (16% career strike rate, 2,315 runners) is a significant booking for a yard that runs infrequently. While both DistFit and GoingFit are negative flags, the same distance/going concerns apply to the majority of this field, neutralising that disadvantage. The MarkMv:+5 is modest and the market has drifted only 6% — the lightest drift among the competitive runners — suggesting the money hasn't abandoned it despite the headwinds. Each-way alternative: Bad Boy Rizz. Main danger: Clonmacash — Clonmacash carries the field's highest SR (71) and has a course placing (W0P1) for the McGuinness yard; Sam Coen's 11% strike rate on 403 runners is respectable, and despite the drift and DistFit:- concern, raw ability at this level makes it the most dangerous rival.

Verify· #19064

Full result

Winner: Caffu Zafeen (IRE) at SP 22/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.