← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Christmas Party Nights At Perth Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Spectacularsunrise
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 SP 15/8 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Spectacularsunrise (SR:128, 5/2) has steamed in 37% from its opening price — the most significant market move in the race — and carries a manageable 10-12, giving it a meaningful weight advantage over top-weighted Tamarind Bay (11-10). The SR of 128 is second only to Tamarind Bay's 130 but the 12lb weight concession from the top-weight largely neutralises that gap. The Twiston-Davies yard may have a modest overall strike rate but Sam Twiston-Davies riding at 17% career record and the sharp market support suggest connections are confident on what is likely a first chase run at this trip (DistFit:? noted). The 5/2 price underestimates a horse the market has aggressively backed. Each-way alternative: The Last Cloud. Main danger: The Last Cloud — The Last Cloud (SR:120, 9/4) has steamed in 24%, boasts an outstanding Course:W3P3 record at Perth which is a specialist track, goes on the going (GoingFit:+), drops in class (ClassMv:↓1), and has Brian Hughes — the most experienced jockey in the field at 19%/947 runners — in the saddle, all of which make it the most obvious threat to the selection.
Full result
Winner: Spectacularsunrise (GB) at SP 15/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Spectacularsunrise Fox #1 2/1
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2
Tamarind Bay 11/4
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3
The Last Cloud Fox #2 9/4
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4
Scalpnagoon 10/1
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5
Sleedagh 10/1
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—
Walking On A Dream Fox #3 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3