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Mr Fox’s call
Sunday River
SPECULATIVE Advised 8/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Sunday River's SR of 148 towers over this field — the next best is Leading Times at SR 84, making this a near-unassailable ability edge. The 22% market inward move from 8/1 is the strongest market signal in the race and strongly suggests connections know this horse is capable of expressing that rating today. Carrying just 8-13, the lightest weight among the runners, further aids the case. The sparse form (Form:0-) is a concern, but in a novice stakes against rivals rated 75-84, raw ability at this SR differential is the overriding factor, and the stable is clearly sending Sunday River as the intended winner over stablemate Qila (who is drifting 10% and is the yard's secondary runner here). Each-way alternative: Qila. Main danger: Qila — Qila (SR 80) has a positive going record (GoingFit:+), has run just 8 days ago keeping race-fitness sharp, and as the stablemate holding a proven going advantage could outperform her rating if Sunday River fails to translate ability into a first run of note.
Full result
Winner: Leading Times (GB) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Leading Times Fox #3 9/4
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2
Qila Fox #2 7/4
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3
Sunday River Fox #1 8/1
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4
Believeinmenow 11/4
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5
Wouldilietoyou 20/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3