Southwell (AW) 19:00 24 Sep 2026
Class 4 24 Sep 2026

Today Free Tips On attheraces.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Free Tips On attheraces.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 4f215y

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  • 5 declared
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AI rates Sunday River Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 8 hours, 37 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Leading Times silks
Leading Times
Age 4 · 9-12
12-
79
84
79OR
4
9-12
9/4 32/17 9/4
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Believeinmenow silks
Believeinmenow
Age 3 · 9-4
273942
68
75
68OR
3
9-4
11/4 3/1 5/2
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Qila silks
Qila
Age 3 · 9-4
-20333
71
80
71OR
3
9-4
7/4 18/13 31/19
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Sunday River silks
Sunday River
Age 3 · 8-13
0-
148
3
8-13
8/1 9/1 7/1
SR 148 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 148 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Wouldilietoyou silks
Wouldilietoyou
Age 3 · 8-13
137
3
8-13
20/1 14/1 16/1
SR 137 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 137 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Leading Times 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 Bet365
2 Believeinmenow 11/4 open 4.00 5/2 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.00 11/4 open 4.00 11/4 open 4.00 5/2 open 4.33 11/4 Bet365
3 Qila 7/4 open 2.50 7/4 open 2.38 13/8 open 2.50 13/8 open 2.50 7/4 open 2.50 7/4 open 2.50 7/4 Bet365
4 Sunday River 8/1 open 12.00 7/1 open 10.00 15/2 open 11.00 15/2 open 11.00 15/2 open 11.00 15/2 open 10.00 8/1 Bet365
5 Wouldilietoyou 20/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 17.00 20/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Sunday River

Live signal

Sunday River owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (82) and market confidence (63). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

8/1 Brian Ellison Tom Kiely-Marshall(3)
81% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Leading Times

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/4 · Tim Easterby
✓ Value Signal

Wouldilietoyou

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

20/1 · David O'Meara
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +31.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Live signal
63 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +13.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Live signal
69 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.9 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Sunday River
65.9 8/1
2 1. Leading Times
57.6 9/4
3 5. Wouldilietoyou
55.7 20/1
4 3. Qila
55.3 7/4
5 2. Believeinmenow
51.3 11/4
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Sunday River
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 3 · 9-4
7/4
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 9-12
9/4
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 3 · 9-4
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 3 · 8-13
8/1
★★★☆☆ SR 148 🐾

SR 148 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 8-13
20/1
★★★☆☆ SR 137 🐾

SR 137 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Sunday River
Confidence: Speculative

Sunday River's SR of 148 towers over this field — the next best is Leading Times at SR 84, making this a near-unassailable ability edge. The 22% market inward move from 8/1 is the strongest market signal in the race and strongly suggests connections know this horse is capable of expressing that rating today. Carrying just 8-13, the lightest weight among the runners, further aids the case. The sparse form (Form:0-) is a concern, but in a novice stakes against rivals rated 75-84, raw ability at this SR differential is the overriding factor, and the stable is clearly sending Sunday River as the intended winner over stablemate Qila (who is drifting 10% and is the yard's secondary runner here). Each-way alternative: Qila. Main danger: Qila — Qila (SR 80) has a positive going record (GoingFit:+), has run just 8 days ago keeping race-fitness sharp, and as the stablemate holding a proven going advantage could outperform her rating if Sunday River fails to translate ability into a first run of note.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form reads '0-' — Sunday River has a recorded last finish of 0 (last/unplaced) and the dash suggests a subsequent non-completion or absence; the horse has never shown ability on a racecourse despite…
  • No Days figure listed — Sunday River has no recorded return date, suggesting a potentially very long or uncertain absence, while rivals Qila (8 days) and Believeinmenow (19 days) arrive race-fit and…
  • Stablemate Qila is 7/4 favourite versus Sunday River's 8/1 — despite the analyst's narrative, the market itself rates Qila the more likely winner from the Brian Ellison yard, and Qila's recent form (…
  • Apprentice jockey Tom Kiely-Marshall (10%, 508 rides) is the weakest booking in the race; on a lightly-raced, form-absent horse on AW at Southwell, inexperience in handling an unknown quantity is a c…
Shortlist Sunday River, Qila, Leading Times
Each-way: Qila Danger: Qila

🗺 The Course Class 4

4f215y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
5 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade