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Pmj Capital Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

15:08 Haydock Fri 25 Sep 2026 0m6f212y Class 3 Soft 12 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Sizzling Affair silks

Sizzling Affair

SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 SP 11/10F Est. 32%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Sizzling Affair (SR 157, 7/4) leads the field on raw ability and carries the most compelling market signal — steaming in 35% from opening — suggesting connections have strong confidence in a debut performance. K.R. Burke runs at a 20% career strike rate from 2,156 runners, one of the strongest training records in the field, and Sam James is a capable partner in soft ground conditions. While all runners share DistFit:? and GoingFit:? given the novice/debut nature of the card, the SR edge of 1 point over New Year's Eve (SR 156) is marginal but the market differential and yard form tilt the balance — Sizzling Affair is backed at 7/4 against 9/4 for Haggas's filly, and Burke's stable form supports the confidence. Each-way alternative: New Year's Eve. Main danger: New Year's Eve — New Year's Eve (SR 156, 9/4) is trained by William Haggas at a 23% career strike rate — the highest in the field — with Cieren Fallon booked and a 21% market move inward, making her a genuine and well-backed threat to Sizzling Affair on debut.

Verify· #19679

Full result

Winner: Sizzling Affair (IRE) at SP 11/10F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Sizzling Affair silks Sizzling Affair Fox #1 K. R. Burke · Sam James 11/10
  2. 2 Trapped Goddess silks Trapped Goddess Hugo Palmer · David Probert 20/1
  3. 3 Grinanbearit silks Grinanbearit Ed Walker · Ashley Lewis(3) 28/1
  4. 4 Floral silks Floral Andrew Balding · Callum Hutchinson 40/1
  5. 5 New Year's Eve silks New Year's Eve Fox #2 William Haggas · Cieren Fallon 9/4
  6. 6 March Lilly silks March Lilly Kevin Ryan · Tom Eaves 20/1
  7. 7 Lunar Storm silks Lunar Storm Fox #4 Richard Hannon · Sean Levey 14/1
  8. 8 Ortenzian Twilight silks Ortenzian Twilight Heather Main · Jack Mitchell 100/1
  9. 9 Liberal Lady silks Liberal Lady Fox #3 Ollie Sangster · Callum Rodriguez 12/1
  10. 10 Costa Verde silks Costa Verde Kevin Philippart de Foy · David Egan 10/1
  11. — Constella silks Constella Tom Ward · Pierre-Louis Jamin 33/1
  12. — Lady Phillips silks Lady Phillips Ralph Beckett · Hector Crouch -

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Sizzling Affair silks Sizzling Affair 7/4 SP 11/10F 🏆 WON
  2. 2 New Year's Eve silks New Year's Eve 9/4 5TH
  3. 3 Liberal Lady silks Liberal Lady 12/1 9TH
  4. 4 Lunar Storm silks Lunar Storm 11/1 7TH