← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ashlar Construction Ebf Novice Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only)
Mr Fox’s call
Jassas
MEDIUM Advised 10/11 SP 11/10F Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Jassas (SR 158, 10/11) is the clear class leader in this field, sitting 5 points clear of the next-best St Helier (SR 153) and 10+ points ahead of everyone else. Dropping down two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) signals Appleby is here to win, and the market has backed that up with an 11% inward move to near-odds-on. The yard runs at 33% career strike rate from 845 runners — among the very best in the sport — and while the jockey booking is relatively junior (Toby Moore, 11%), Appleby regularly uses claimer allowances strategically on short-priced horses in novice company to get the job done. The form figure of '15' reads last-run win then a fifth beforehand, meaning the horse arrives on the back of a victory; dropping into Class 3 from higher company makes the task considerably more straightforward. Each-way alternative: St Helier. Main danger: St Helier — St Helier (SR 153, 4/1) ran to a big number last time out with a winning effort and is only 5 SR points below Jassas — if the Appleby runner underperforms on soft ground or the trip, St Helier has the form to capitalise, though the 12% drift is a mild concern.
Full result
Winner: Jassas (GB) at SP 11/10F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Jassas Fox #1 8/11
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2
Brave Country 20/1
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3
St Helier Fox #2 9/2
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4
Native German Fox #3 6/1
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5
Harrow On The Hill 10/1
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6
Great Oak 9/1
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7
Dark Detective 80/1
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8
Grand Havana 40/1
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El Paso -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3