Esh Stantec Handicap Stakes

17:10 Newcastle (AW) Fri 25 Sep 2026 1m2f42y Class 6 Good 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Rugby Union

MEDIUM Advised 6/4 Est. 35%

7TH

Mr Fox says

Rugby Union (SR:67, 6/4) is the clear class leader in this field — the only runner above SR:62 — and has been significantly backed from opening, shortening 23% into favouritism. The Course:W1P1 record at Newcastle AW is a concrete positive, and the ClassMv:= means connections aren't asking questions they don't have the answers to. The 3yo weight allowance means the 9-4 burden is manageable, and trainer Gemma Tutty's 11% strike rate combined with Joanna Mason's consistent 12% record gives a professional booking that matches the market confidence. The only hesitation is GoingFit:? suggesting limited AW-good data, but on balance the SR gap over rivals is decisive. Each-way alternative: Token Love. Main danger: Token Love — Token Love (SR:62, 9/2) holds the second-highest SR in the field, carries confirmed DistFit:+ at today's 1m2f trip, and Micky Hammond's yard has placed this horse on a mark without a MarkMv flag suggesting the handicapper hasn't caught up — the 62-day gap and tongue-tie addition are the only concerns.

Verify· #19734

Full result

Winner: Rory's Gold (IRE) at SP 14/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.