← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Betway British Ebf Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Alobayyah
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 SP 100/30 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Alobayyah (SR 107, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in this field and carries 9-4 — the same weight as the next-best-rated runners — so there is no weight penalty disadvantage relative to Arisaig at the same SR bracket. William Haggas (23% strike rate, 2053 runners) is the standout training operation here, and Tom Marquand (16%) is a reliable booking. The market has shortened 6% since opening, indicating quiet but real confidence, and DistFit:+ confirms proven ability over this mile. The GoingFit:- flag is the one genuine concern — she has a poor record on good ground — but at Listed level her SR 107 superiority and Haggas's class edge are compelling enough to overcome that reservation, especially as several rivals carry bigger negatives. Each-way alternative: Lizzana. Main danger: Estissa — Estissa (SR 105, 4/1) has the best recent form consistency in the field with a 121334 string, Oisin Murphy in the saddle (22% career strike rate), and both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmed — the only concern is the market drifting 20% and a mark 14lb above her last win, suggesting connections may not be peak-confident.
Full result
Winner: Alobayyah (GB) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Alobayyah Fox #1 5/2
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2
Lizzana Fox #3 6/1
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3
Song N Dance 14/1
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4
Estissa Fox #2 4/1
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5
Crystal Flyer 50/1
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6
Applesandpears 12/1
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7
Arisaig 5/1
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8
Blingy's Sister 17/2
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9
Gilding The Lily Fox #4 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4