← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Download The At The Races App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Shadow Boxer
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Shadow Boxer carries the highest SR in the field at 150, a clear 2-point edge over Al Jolson (148) and a massive 23-50 point gap over the remaining field. Crucially, Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate, 2735 runners) is a significant jockey upgrade signal — the Crisford yard's #1 booking over Harry Davies on stablemate Al Jolson makes this the yard's intended runner. The 9-4 weight gives Shadow Boxer a 7lb advantage over both Al Jolson and the two market principals, Najidi Storm and Wootz. While the 13% market drift is a mild concern, it may simply reflect Al Jolson's presence muddying the yard's intentions rather than genuine negative information, and at 4/1 the SR-150 profile represents value in a novice field where most rivals are SR 123-127. Each-way alternative: Al Jolson. Main danger: Wootz — Wootz (SR:100) is the 5/4 market leader from the Roger Varian yard (20% strike rate, 1412 runners) with a solid form line of 1-2 and only a 14-day turnaround suggesting peak fitness — the market's confidence may reflect private trial or workout information that outweighs the SR deficit.
Full result
Winner: Wootz (IRE) at SP 7/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Wootz Fox #3 11/8
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2
Najidi Storm Fox #4 6/4
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3
Shadow Boxer Fox #1 4/1
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4
Al Jolson Fox #2 13/2
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5
Petworth 33/1
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6
North Beach 50/1
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7
Herstmonceux 150/1
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8
Mashkur 100/1
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9
Elsa Tan 250/1
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10
Circle of Secrets 250/1
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11
Khachaturian 250/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Shadow Boxer 4/1 🥉 3RD
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2
Al Jolson 15/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Wootz 5/4 SP 7/4 🏆 WON
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4
Najidi Storm 7/4 🥈 2ND