← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Zafaan
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/4 SP 11/10F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Zafaan (SR:63, 6/4) is the clear class leader in this field, carrying just 9-6 despite dropping two class tiers — a significant advantage that opens up a 53lb drop in mark since last win, making this a very winnable assignment. The market has firmed 16% since opening, reflecting informed confidence from Charlie Clover's yard (21% strike rate, one of the stronger trainers in the field) with Billy Loughnane booked at 18% career strike rate. GoingFit:~ is a minor concern on the All-Weather good surface, but the class drop of two tiers is the dominant signal here — SR:63 towers over the next-best Trojan Truth at SR:56 and Dijon Gone at SR:55, and both of those carry significant baggage (DistFit:- and GoingFit:- respectively). Each-way alternative: Dijon Gone. Main danger: Trojan Truth — Trojan Truth (SR:56, 13/2) has Course:W1P6 — an exceptional Wolverhampton record that suggests a genuine course specialist, and despite DistFit:-, that course familiarity on an AW track can override trip concerns at this level.
Full result
Winner: Zafaan (IRE) at SP 11/10F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Zafaan Fox #1 11/8
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2
Long Reign 14/1
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3
Late Claim 28/1
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4
Dijon Gone Fox #2 5/1
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5
Wonderful Wendy 15/2
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6
Trojan Truth Fox #3 13/2
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7
Lednikov 14/1
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8
Billingsgate Gold 12/1
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9
Baileys Warrior 14/1
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10
Bigz Belief 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Zafaan 6/4 SP 11/10F 🏆 WON
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2
Dijon Gone 11/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Trojan Truth 13/2 6TH