← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Cavani Winning Form Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Nogo's Dream
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Nogo's Dream (SR:79, 4/1) combines the strongest course record in the field (W1P4 at Wolverhampton) with a drop of one class and a mark 8lb lower than his last win — the most favourable MarkMv in the race. Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate, 2,735 runners) is comfortably the best jockey booking on the card and rarely takes a Class 5 ride without intent. The 10% market move in supports connections' confidence. GoingFit is moderate rather than proven, but course specialisation at Wolverhampton AW overrides that concern here; his 2-6-4-2-6-4 form line shows consistent placing without the win, but the class relief and mark drop are the catalysts for breaking through. Each-way alternative: Bona Fortuna. Main danger: Bona Fortuna — Bona Fortuna (SR:82, 7/2) is the SR leader in the field, proven at this distance and on this going (DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+), carries a manageable 9-12, and runs off the same mark as his last win — if Michael Appleby's yard fires on the day, the ability edge could be decisive.
Full result
Winner: Bona Fortuna (IRE) at SP 11/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Bona Fortuna Fox #2 7/2
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2
Nogo's Dream Fox #1 9/4
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3
U S S Charleston 13/2
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4
Comic Strip Fox #3 9/2
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5
Adalida Fox #4 9/1
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6
Enter Sandman 18/1
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7
Loleeta 28/1
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8
Too Darn Good 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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