Pravha Handicap (Div II)

16:50 Down Royal Mon 28 Sep 2026 1m3f10y Good 15 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Flagstone Lady

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 28%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Flagstone Lady (SR:60, 5/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin — 3 points above Connecteo (SR:57) and 8 above Augusta Rock (SR:52) — and her 10-0 weight is manageable at this level given her clear SR superiority. Her last-run figure of '1' confirms she arrives in form, and O'Callaghan's 12% strike rate with Reese Holohan aboard adds stable confidence. The 6% drift is a minor concern and must be acknowledged, but no rival combines SR advantage with recent winning form: her SR edge is simply the widest in this 15-runner field and the 5/2 market still makes her the clear public choice. Augusta Rock (SR:52, 9/2) is the main danger — lighter weight at 9-4 and the JP O'Brien yard firing at 16% — but her GoingFit is flagged poor on today's good ground, which undermines her chance on the day. Each-way alternative: Augusta Rock. Main danger: Augusta Rock — Augusta Rock (SR:52, 9/2) is JP O'Brien's #1 runner here — better jockey booking in Declan McDonogh, lighter weight at 9-4 giving a 10lb pull on Flagstone Lady, and the yard's 16% strike rate means this is not a token entry, though the GoingFit:- flag on today's good ground is the caveat that keeps her off the top spot.

Verify· #20310

Full result

Winner: Connecteo (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.