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16:55 Kempton (AW) Wed 30 Sep 2026 7f Class 5 Good to Soft 13 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Nascent Star silks

Nascent Star

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 28%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Nascent Star (SR:76, 5/1) shares the joint-highest SR in the field alongside Arctic Tsar but carries 5lb less (9-0 vs 9-5), a meaningful weight advantage in a 2yo nursery handicap. The decisive signal here is the market: a 37% inward move from the opening price is the sharpest steam in this field by a considerable margin, and Oisin Murphy — the highest-strike-rate jockey in the race at 22% from 2,741 career rides — has been booked. The form string '440294' includes a recent '4' last time, suggesting a horse that has found form intermittently but connections clearly expect improvement dropping back to Class 5 on the same mark. The light weight, elite jockey booking, and dramatic market confidence collectively make this the most compelling case despite a DistFit:- flag, which is partially offset by the short form sample typical of 2yo nurseries. Each-way alternative: Arctic Tsar. Main danger: Arctic Tsar — Arctic Tsar (SR:76, 4/1) matches Nascent Star's SR, was last seen winning (form '8661' — most recent digit is a 1), and Clive Cox's 17% trainer strike rate with Hector Crouch (18%) is a potent combination, even if stepping up a class and running off a mark 6lb higher than the winning mark.

Verify· #20690

Full result

Winner: Arctic Tsar (IRE) at SP 9/2F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Arctic Tsar silks Arctic Tsar Fox #2 Clive Cox · Hector Crouch 4/1
  2. 2 Hidden Beyond silks Hidden Beyond Charles Hills · Jason Watson 14/1
  3. 3 Nascent Star silks Nascent Star Fox #1 Hugo Palmer · Oisin Murphy 5/1
  4. 4 Xochipilli silks Xochipilli Mark Loughnane · Tom Marquand 11/2
  5. 5 Gold Reef City silks Gold Reef City Ralph Beckett · Rossa Ryan 10/1
  6. 6 Bullrider silks Bullrider George Boughey · Billy Loughnane 22/1
  7. 7 Shemiyla Star silks Shemiyla Star Fox #3 Charlie Johnston · Callum Shepherd 11/1
  8. 8 Louis The Fifth silks Louis The Fifth Michael Bell · Daniel Muscutt 14/1
  9. 9 Rollthedicebaby silks Rollthedicebaby Richard Hannon · Pat Dobbs 8/1
  10. 10 True Charm silks True Charm Lemos De Souza · Lewis Edmunds 80/1
  11. 11 Royal Titan silks Royal Titan Marco Botti · Silvestre De Sousa 15/2
  12. 12 Reddy silks Reddy Fox #4 Eve Johnson Houghton · Charles Bishop 10/1
  13. 13 Sequel Star silks Sequel Star Ed Walker · Kieran Shoemark 14/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Nascent Star silks Nascent Star 5/1 🥉 3RD
  2. 2 Arctic Tsar silks Arctic Tsar 4/1 SP 9/2F 🏆 WON
  3. 3 Shemiyla Star silks Shemiyla Star 9/1 7TH
  4. 4 Reddy silks Reddy 11/1 12TH