Kempton (AW) 16:55 RESULTED
Class 5 30 Sep 2026

Last Wednesday Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery Handicap Stakes

Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery Handicap Stakes · 7f

Official Result

Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Arctic Tsar (IRE) Hector Crouch · Clive Cox
    9/2F
  2. 18/1
  3. 5/1
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Big race Sun 4 Oct Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ParisLongchamp · 15:05

Musselburgh

13:38–17:08 · 7 races

Catterick

13:57–17:55 · 8 races

Warwick

14:00–16:52 · 6 races

Bellewstown

14:05–17:35 · 7 races

Sligo

14:20–17:50 · 7 races

Kempton (AW)

16:25–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Louis The Fifth silks
Louis The Fifth
Age 2 · 9-9
3245
75
67
88
2
9-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
14/1 10/1 12/1
Louis The Fifth has shown mixed form in his last four starts, with a second and a third before fading to fourth and fifth, and he has run over today's trip. Our rating of 88 makes him the one to beat from draw 8, though the yard's form is a slight concern.
AI verdict

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

2
Rollthedicebaby silks
Rollthedicebaby
Age 2 · 9-8
210606
74
61
84
2
9-8
★☆☆☆☆
—
8/1 10/1 13/2
Rollthedicebaby is a leading danger, with a win and a second in her last six starts and our rating of 84 ranking her second of 13; she has run over today's trip and is fresh after 20 days off. The main risk is that her last four runs have brought no better than sixth.
AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

3
Bullrider silks
Bullrider
Age 2 · 9-7
2356
73
59
75
2
9-7
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 16/1 14/1
Bullrider has slipped from a second and a third to a fifth and sixth in his last four starts, though he's fresh enough after 13 days and has run over today's trip. Yet to win in that spell, he sits sixth of 13 on our rating, off 133 lb from stall 10.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

4
Shemiyla Star silks
Shemiyla Star
Age 2 · 9-6
2403
72
73
77
2
9-6
★★★☆☆
—
11/1 13/2 9/1
Shemiyla Star arrives with a third last time out and a second four starts back, so he's placed twice in his last four, and has run over today's trip before. Yet to win in his last four, he's the main risk, though our rating of 77 ranks him fourth of 13 after 39 days off.
AI verdict

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Xochipilli silks
Xochipilli
Age 2 · 9-6
43
72
68
73
2
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
11/2 5/1 9/2
Xochipilli was third last time out and fourth the run before, but he is yet to win in his last two starts and sits only tenth of 13 on our figures, which makes him hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and is fit after 26 days, but 132 lb is a big burden.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Reddy silks
Reddy
Age 2 · 9-5
323
71
72
80
2
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
10/1 10/1 15/2
Reddy has been placed in all three recent starts, finishing third, second, then third again, and he's only nine days since his last run, so he's fit. Our rating of 80 makes him a leading threat, though the trainer's form (1/32 in the last 14 days) is the one concern.
AI verdict

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Arctic Tsar silks
Arctic Tsar
Age 2 · 9-5
8661
71
76
74
2
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 FCST 7/2
Arctic Tsar won last time out, though that came after a sixth, another sixth and an eighth, and he has run over today's trip. Fresh enough after 22 days, he carries 131 lb from draw 9, and our rating of 74 ranks him ninth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Gold Reef City silks
Gold Reef City
Age 2 · 9-3
735
69
67
70
2
9-3
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 8/1 15/2
Gold Reef City is winless in his last three, finishing fifth, third, seventh, and returns after 49 days off, which makes him hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and drew stall 13, but our figures rank him twelfth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Royal Titan silks
Royal Titan
Age 2 · 9-2
9753
68
71
70
2
9-2
★★★☆☆
—
15/2 7/2 7/1
Royal Titan is winless in his last four, though a third last time out shows some improvement after a 7th and 9th, and he has run over today's trip. Ranked 13 of 13 on our figures and off a 44-day break, he is hard to fancy from stall 1.
AI verdict

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
True Charm silks
True Charm
Age 2 · 9-2
2058
68
46
70
2
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
80/1 33/1 70/1
Winless in his last four, True Charm was beaten into eighth last time and has been out 33 days, though a second four starts back and prior experience over today's trip give him something. Ranked 11 of 13 on our figures, he is hard to fancy from draw 12.
AI verdict

SR 46 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Sequel Star silks
Sequel Star
Age 2 · 9-2
4344
68
63
77
2
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 9/1 12/1
Sequel Star has been consistent without cracking it, finishing fourth, fourth, third, fourth, and she has run over today's trip after 23 days off. Yet to win in her last four starts, she has to carry 128 lb from draw 7, though our rating ranks her fifth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 63 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Hidden Beyond silks
Hidden Beyond
Age 2 · 9-1
32
67
69
75
2
9-1
★★★☆☆
—
14/1 13/2 14/1
Hidden Beyond is yet to win but finished second last time out, and third the run before, and she has run over today's trip after 26 days off. Trainer's poor recent form (1/21 in 14 days) tempers things, and our rating of 75 ranks her eighth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Nascent Star silks
Nascent Star
Age 2 · 9-0
440294
66
76
75
2
9-0
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 11/2 9/2
Nascent Star is winless in his last six, though a second three starts back and a fourth last time out show he's competitive, and he's fresh from an 11-day break and has run over today's trip. Carrying 126 lb from stall four, he looks a midfield type at best.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Louis The Fifth 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 12/1 16/1 Coral
2 Rollthedicebaby 8/1 open 21.00 15/2 open 11.00 13/2 open 15.00 13/2 open 15.00 15/2 open 15.00 8/1 open 15.00 8/1 Bet365
3 Bullrider 22/1 open 17.00 16/1 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 19.00 22/1 Bet365
4 Shemiyla Star 11/1 open 8.00 10/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 12/1 open 9.00 11/1 open 8.50 12/1 William Hill
5 Xochipilli 11/2 open 8.00 11/2 open 6.00 9/2 open 7.50 9/2 open 7.50 5/1 open 7.50 5/1 open 7.50 11/2 Bet365
6 Reddy 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 11.00 15/2 open 13.00 15/2 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 Bet365
7 Arctic Tsar 4/1 open 4.50 7/2 7/2 7/2 4/1 open 4.50 7/2 4/1 Bet365
8 Gold Reef City 10/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 15/2 open 10.00 15/2 open 10.00 11/1 open 11.00 10/1 open 10.00 11/1 William Hill
9 Royal Titan 15/2 open 6.50 8/1 open 7.50 7/1 open 5.00 7/1 open 5.00 8/1 open 4.50 17/2 open 4.50 17/2 Betfred
10 True Charm 80/1 open 34.00 70/1 open 41.00 100/1 open 41.00 100/1 open 41.00 100/1 open 41.00 80/1 open 41.00 100/1 Coral
11 Sequel Star 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 13.00 12/1 open 12.00 16/1 Coral
12 Hidden Beyond 14/1 open 7.50 14/1 open 8.50 18/1 open 8.50 18/1 open 8.50 16/1 open 8.50 18/1 open 8.50 18/1 Coral
13 Nascent Star 5/1 open 15.00 9/2 open 15.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 11/2 11/2 Coral

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Arctic Tsar

Speculative

Arctic Tsar owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 Clive Cox Hector Crouch
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Nascent Star

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Hugo Palmer
✓ Value Signal

True Charm

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

80/1 · Lemos De Souza
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
32 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +2.9 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 7. Arctic Tsar
52.7 4/1
2 13. Nascent Star
52.5 5/1
3 9. Royal Titan
50.5 15/2
4 6. Reddy
48.5 10/1
5 4. Shemiyla Star
45.7 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Nascent Star
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

7
Age 2 · 9-5
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾 —

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 2 · 9-0
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾 —

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 2 · 9-6
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾 —

SR 68 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 2 · 9-2
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 2 · 9-8
8/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾 —

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

6
Age 2 · 9-5
10/1
★★★☆☆ SR 72 🐾 —

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 2 · 9-3
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 2 · 9-6
11/1
★★★☆☆ SR 73 🐾 —

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 2 · 9-9
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

11
Age 2 · 9-2
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾 —

SR 63 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 2 · 9-1
14/1
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Nascent Star
Confidence: Speculative

Nascent Star (SR:76, 5/1) shares the joint-highest SR in the field alongside Arctic Tsar but carries 5lb less (9-0 vs 9-5), a meaningful weight advantage in a 2yo nursery handicap. The decisive signal here is the market: a 37% inward move from the opening price is the sharpest steam in this field by a considerable margin, and Oisin Murphy — the highest-strike-rate jockey in the race at 22% from 2,741 career rides — has been booked. The form string '440294' includes a recent '4' last time, suggesting a horse that has found form intermittently but connections clearly expect improvement dropping back to Class 5 on the same mark. The light weight, elite jockey booking, and dramatic market confidence collectively make this the most compelling case despite a DistFit:- flag, which is partially offset by the short form sample typical of 2yo nurseries. Each-way alternative: Arctic Tsar. Main danger: Arctic Tsar — Arctic Tsar (SR:76, 4/1) matches Nascent Star's SR, was last seen winning (form '8661' — most recent digit is a 1), and Clive Cox's 17% trainer strike rate with Hector Crouch (18%) is a potent combination, even if stepping up a class and running off a mark 6lb higher than the winning mark.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string '440294' shows a '9' two runs back and the most recent figure is only a '4' — Nascent Star has not won in 6 career starts, suggesting a horse that finds reasons to be beaten under pressur…
  • DistFit:- flag is a real concern: Kempton AW 1m nurseries have a distinct pace profile, and if Nascent Star lacks proven aptitude for this trip/track combo, the course W0P1 record (placed once, never…
  • Arctic Tsar (same SR:76, shorter 4/1, raised 6lb on MarkMv suggesting the handicapper sees upside) is trained by Clive Cox (17% strike rate) with Hector Crouch (18%) — a stronger trainer/jockey combo…
  • A 37% market move to 5/1 in a 13-runner AW nursery can reflect small-field bookmaker adjustments or syndicate activity rather than genuine stable confidence; 5/1 remains a drifty price if connections…
Shortlist Nascent Star, Arctic Tsar, Shemiyla Star, Reddy
Each-way: Arctic Tsar Danger: Arctic Tsar

🗺 The Course Class 5

7f Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Kempton (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade