← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Scorcher's Son
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Scorcher's Son (SR:67, 5/2) carries the highest Saturday Rating in the field and has been backed aggressively — in 26% since opening — which is the strongest market signal in this race by some margin. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's 16% strike rate is comfortably the best trainer figure declared, and Julian Pietropaolo at 8% is a competent booking for an apprentice series final. The weight of 9-8 is fair for the ability level, sitting comfortably below the top two weights. While the form reads only 766 and distance/going fitness is unproven (?), the class of the yard combined with the significant market move suggests connections believe this is the right race at the right time, and the SR edge over the next cluster of 64s is meaningful in a modest field. Each-way alternative: Justenzia. Main danger: Justenzia — Justenzia holds the second-highest SR (73) in the field — actually the highest raw figure — has been backed in 9% with a tongue-tie applied, and at 4/1 represents genuine each-way value, though DistFit:- and GoingFit:- plus only 3 days since last run are real concerns that keep it off the top spot.
Full result
Winner: Arch Enemy (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Arch Enemy Fox #3 11/1
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2
Miss Australie Fox #4 10/1
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3
Metamorpheus 8/1
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4
Coulstys Way 9/1
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5
Duke Of Leggagh 11/1
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6
Spanish John 25/1
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7
Preparations 15/2
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8
Celtic Druid 33/1
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9
Sneddy Eddie 22/1
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10
Scorcher's Son Fox #1 2/1
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11
Miss Gitana 66/1
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12
Dancing Steve 16/1
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—
Justenzia Fox #2 9/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Scorcher's Son 5/2 10TH
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2
Justenzia 4/1
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3
Arch Enemy 9/1 SP 9/1 🏆 WON
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4
Miss Australie 9/1 🥈 2ND