← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Gracie's Bar Beginners Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Hello Neighbour
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/4 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Hello Neighbour carries the highest SR in the field at 142, a clear 6-point edge over second-ranked Hello Neighbour at 142 vs Bowensonfire at 136, and is rightly the 5/4 market leader. The form string 57031- contains a recent win (the '1') and the horse represents a strong Gavin Cromwell yard booking with Keith Donoghue, a combination that fires at a combined respectable clip. The DistFit:? and GoingFit:? flags are a genuine concern given 151 days off and unknown trip/going credentials, but in a weak 5-runner beginners' chase the SR advantage is simply too large to ignore, and the market has stayed tight rather than drifting meaningfully. Bowensonfire's 9% market drift is a notable negative signal against Elliott's #1 runner in this yard pairing. Each-way alternative: Putapoundinthejar. Main danger: Putapoundinthejar — Putapoundinthejar (SR:135) holds a GoingFit:+ advantage on today's good ground — a confirmed edge Hello Neighbour cannot match given GoingFit:? — and the recent form 5-3112 shows back-to-back wins heading into this, giving A.J. Martin's runner a live chance if Hello Neighbour needs the run after 151 days off.
Full result
Winner: Putapoundinthejar (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Putapoundinthejar Fox #2 9/4
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2
Mode Avion 11/1
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3
Hello Neighbour Fox #1 11/8
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4
Western Doyen 300/1
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—
Bowensonfire Fox #3 11/4
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Hello Neighbour 5/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Putapoundinthejar 9/4 SP 1/1F 🏆 WON
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3
Bowensonfire 11/4