← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Frank O'Beirne Memorial Beginners Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Down Around
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Down Around (SR 115, 5/2) is the clear ability leader in this beginner chase field, with a recent form line of 6-7141 that shows a win last time out and consistent improvement under blinkers. Gordon Elliott (18% strike rate, 4,018 runners) booking Jack Kennedy (22% strike rate, 1,210 runners) is comfortably the strongest trainer-jockey combination on the card — Kennedy's 22% career win rate is elite and signals a yard confident in this runner. GoingFit:~ confirms the horse handles good ground adequately, and at 5/2 the market still prices it as the dominant force despite a modest 8% drift which appears more tactical than alarming. The MarkMv:+5 is a small negative but in a beginners chase where SRs cluster between 72 and 119, the 8-10 point SR gap over the next-best rivals is the decisive factor. Each-way alternative: Affinity Rock. Main danger: Affinity Rock — Affinity Rock (SR 119, 3/1) is actually the SR leader in the field, carries a lighter weight of 11-5 giving it a 7lb pull on Down Around, and despite a 10% drift the four-star AI rating and competitive recent form line 0-2234 show progressive ability — if Down Around's blinkers fail to sharpen it jumping, Affinity Rock's raw SR edge could be decisive.
Full result
Winner: Only For Our Man (IRE) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Only For Our Man Fox #3 7/2
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2
Affinity Rock Fox #2 7/2
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3
River Tara 12/1
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4
Mags Nelson 10/1
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5
Benner Wenner 20/1
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Bergamasquo 10/1
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Down Around Fox #1 10/3
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Ready For Road 14/1
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Walkingmayotomilan Fox #4 9/2
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Boston Rajj -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Down Around 5/2
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2
Affinity Rock 3/1 🥈 2ND
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3
Only For Our Man 6/1 SP 11/4F 🏆 WON
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4
Walkingmayotomilan 17/2