← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Christy 'Frosty' Callaghan Memorial Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Straight Home
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Straight Home (SR 128, 7/2) is the class standout in this field, rating 9 points clear of the next-best Minella Sixo (SR 119) and 10 clear of the two SR-118 horses. The weight advantage is significant — carrying 10-11 versus 11-10 on rivals Soir De Garde and Le Coq Hardi, a 13lb swing that more than offsets any SR gap. GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on good ground, DistFit:~ shows a workable distance record, and the /41-32 form string shows consistent recent involvement at the business end of races. While the Mkt:out10% drift is a mild concern, the Mullins yard (26% SR) has booked Brian Hayes rather than the yard's number-one Paul Townend — Townend is riding stablemate Soir De Garde — which signals Soir De Garde is Mullins' primary hope, yet Straight Home's raw SR superiority and weight-in-hand make it the stronger selection on the data. Each-way alternative: Soir De Garde. Main danger: Soir De Garde — Soir De Garde (SR 118, 7/4 favourite) carries the Mullins number-one booking in Paul Townend (38% strike rate), and the yard's market confidence at 7/4 suggests connections regard this horse as their likeliest winner despite its inferior SR — Townend's record at this level on good ground demands respect.
Full result
Winner: Chanceawetmorning (IRE) at SP 2/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Chanceawetmorning Fox #3 9/2
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2
Le Coq Hardi 12/1
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3
Soir De Garde Fox #2 10/11
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4
Straight Home Fox #1 4/1
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5
Itsalladream 12/1
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6
Minella Sixo Fox #4 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4