← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Free Race Replays On Attheraces.com Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Kentucky Rain
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Kentucky Rain leads the field on SR (92) and carries a favourable 9-6, giving it a 2lb pull on Not My Type and a 4lb edge on Blake's Monarch despite the superior ability rating. The 45% market move in from opening tells a clear story — money has been placed with conviction, and at 10/3 there is still genuine value against a market implied probability of around 23%. The form string 20144 shows a win last time out (rightmost digit) dropping two class tiers, and Class ↓2 in a nursery handicap is a meaningful advantage. DistFit:~ is the one caveat at 5f, but the class relief and market confidence override that moderate distance record. Each-way alternative: Not My Type. Main danger: Not My Type — Not My Type (SR 86, 9/2) has the second-best SR in the field, DistFit:+ at 5f confirmed, and William Haggas (23% strike rate) is a yard whose runners fresh off a 7-day turnaround are almost always primed — even accounting for the 30% drift, the class drop and course fitness make it a live threat.
Full result
Winner: Bill The Bull (IRE) at SP 17/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Bill The Bull 15/2
-
2
Blake's Monarch 9/2
-
3
Peaceful Warrior Fox #4 11/2
-
4
Havana Lightning Fox #3 11/4
-
5
Kentucky Rain Fox #1 7/2
-
6
Not My Type Fox #2 9/2
-
—
Eleven Eighty Two 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3
-
4