← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Noble Grace
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Noble Grace (SR:59, 4/1, Wgt:10-0) is the SR leader in a weak Class 6 field and has steamed in 36% in the market — the most significant market move in the race by a considerable margin. Warren Greatrex's 14% strike rate and Rob Hornby's 12% aboard give competent connections, and the drop of four class tiers from the horse's most recent run suggests this is a deliberately targeted assignment. The form string 474137 shows a recent '7' but the class drop and market confidence suggest that run is being overlooked by connections who know better. GoingFit:~ is mild concern but not disqualifying on good ground at this level, and a 36% market move is too loud a signal to ignore in a race where the SR advantage is also with this horse. Each-way alternative: Sir Griflet. Main danger: Urban Warrior — Urban Warrior (SR:58, 11/4) is the second-highest SR in the field and sits 2lb lighter than Noble Grace at 9-12, carrying a ClassMv:↓1 into a race where it is likely the yard's intended winner — though the 12% market drift and GoingFit:- are genuine negatives that prevent it being the primary pick.
Full result
Winner: Corsican Caper (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Corsican Caper 7/2
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2
Regally Blonde 15/2
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3
Al's River Fox #4 10/1
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4
Urban Warrior Fox #3 5/4
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5
Stopherandgo 100/1
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6
Sir Griflet Fox #2 9/2
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7
Lady Lauren 80/1
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8
Damzon 14/1
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9
Assured 40/1
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10
N'Ion 50/1
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—
Noble Grace Fox #1 10/3
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—
Pacific Storm 5/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Noble Grace 4/1
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2
Sir Griflet 4/1 6TH
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3
Urban Warrior 11/4 🏁 4TH
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4
Al's River 11/1 🥉 3RD