← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
No More No
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
No More No (SR:113, 7/4) is the standout selection in this small field. The combination of Course:W3P3 — three course wins and three places at Southwell — is an exceptional specialist record that no other runner can match, and this course strongly suits front-runners and course regulars given its unique Fibresand setup. DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm the horse handles today's trip and going conditions, and a 14% market move inward (Mkt:in14%) signals confident stable/market support. Despite stepping up in class (ClassMv:↑1) and running off a mark 2lb higher than last win (MarkMv:+2), the weight advantage of 11-2 — carrying 11lb less than both Paper Mill and Law of Supply at 11-13 — is a meaningful physical edge, and at 7/4 the price fairly reflects the horse's dominant course credentials. David Bass (15%, 502 career runners) is a strong booking for a small yard (Lawney Hill, 16%, just 43 runners), underscoring that this is the yard's intended target. Each-way alternative: Paper Mill. Main danger: Paper Mill — Paper Mill (SR:115, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and has shortened 7% in the market (Mkt:in7%), and while GoingFit:- is a concern on good ground, its SR edge and market confidence make it the most credible threat to upset the selection.
Full result
Winner: Paper Mill (GB) at SP 6/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Paper Mill Fox #2 2/1
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2
Law of Supply 9/2
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3
No More No Fox #1 6/4
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4
Alright Dai Fox #3 5/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3