← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
'smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Jurassic Pet
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Jurassic Pet (SR:90, 4/1) leads the field on ability and carries the most compelling market signal — a 45% inward move from opening price is substantial and suggests stable confidence in a small 8-runner field. Despite top-weight at 12-0, the SR advantage over rivals is meaningful: only Crafty Gael (SR:91) matches it on that metric, but Crafty Gael has drifted 14% and is running off a mark +6lb above last win, creating a penalty problem. Sara Bradstock (22% strike rate, 40 runners) is a selective operator whose runners command attention when Nico de Boinville takes the ride — de Boinville books at 26% and doesn't waste his time on hopeless causes at Southwell. The form string 1/430- has a gap but the 45% market compression over a race run at 3m on Good ground at Class 5 is the dominant signal here. Each-way alternative: Crafty Gael. Main danger: Crafty Gael — Crafty Gael (SR:91, 13/8) is the highest-rated horse in the field, Olly Murphy's yard strikes at 24% with Sean Bowen aboard at 24%, and the recent form 08-321 shows a sharp upward trajectory — the drift from favourite may reflect the +6 mark penalty rather than stable doubt, and if the weight burden is manageable at 11-12, it retains a live chance.
Full result
Winner: Crafty Gael (IRE) at SP 5/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Crafty Gael Fox #2 6/4
-
2
Cappa Lass 14/1
-
3
Athena's Dream 16/1
-
4
Captain Connor 14/1
-
5
Could Be You 15/2
-
6
Daaris 13/2
-
7
Jurassic Pet Fox #1 9/2
-
8
Ol Parson Fox #3 11/2
-
—
Maestrow -
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3